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The effects of intraday foreign exchange market operations in Latin America: results for Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Fuentes
  • Pablo Pincheira
  • Juan Manuel Julio
  • Hernán Rincón
  • Santiago García-Verdú
  • Miguel Zerecero
  • Marco Vega
  • Erick Lahura
  • Ramon Moreno

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of sterilised, intraday foreign exchange market operations (non-discretionary and discretionary) on foreign exchange returns and volatility in four inflation targeting economies in Latin America. The distribution of exchange rates during intervention and non-intervention days are first compared, and then event study regressions are used to estimate the impact of intervention (and macro surprises) on exchange rate returns and exchange rate volatility as well as on foreign exchange market turnover (in Colombia). In general, the results suggest that the impact of both non-discretionary and discretionary operations is at times significant but transitory. However, an analysis of Chile's experience suggests that the announcement effects of even non-discretionary programmes may be significant and persistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Fuentes & Pablo Pincheira & Juan Manuel Julio & Hernán Rincón & Santiago García-Verdú & Miguel Zerecero & Marco Vega & Erick Lahura & Ramon Moreno, 2014. "The effects of intraday foreign exchange market operations in Latin America: results for Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru," BIS Working Papers 462, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:462
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The Impact of Pre-announced Day-to-day Interventions on the Colombian Exchange Rate," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010767, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Stefan Thurner & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 695-707, February.
    3. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
    4. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Toro, 2010. "Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007622, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2005. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 49-60, January.
    7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    8. Pablo Pincheira, 2013. "Interventions and Inflation Expectations in an Inflation Targeting Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 693, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Renzo Rossini & Zenon Quispe & Enrique Serrano, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention in Peru," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 243-262 Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
    11. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
    13. Dorn, Daniel & Huberman, Gur, 2010. "Preferred risk habitat of individual investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 155-173, July.
    14. Philippe Jorion, 1996. "Risk and Turnover in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 19-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2012. "Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions," Working Papers Series 273, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Jorge Toro & Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Efectividad De La Intervención Discrecional Del Banco De La República En El Mercado Cambiario," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002411, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dietrich Domanski & Emanuel Kohlscheen & Ramon Moreno, 2016. "Foreign exchange market intervention in EMEs: what has changed?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    2. Juraj Zeman & Biswajit Banerjee & Ludovit Odor & William O. Riiska Jr., 2017. "On the Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: The Case of Slovakia, 1999-2007," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Ken Miyajima & Carlos Montoro, 2013. "Impact of foreign exchange interventions on exchange rate expectations," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 39-54 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Fernando Avalos & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "When the Walk Is Not Random: Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 121-158, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; central bank intervention; microstructure;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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