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Determinantes de la tasa de cambio en Colombia: un enfoque de microestructura de mercados

Author

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  • Andrés Murcia

    ()

  • Diego Rojas

Abstract

En este trabajo se brindan elementos adicionales en la comprensión de la dinámica de la tasa de cambio en Colombia. Por una parte, se presentan los principales hallazgos de una encuesta dirigida a los agentes del mercado cambiario; en ella se resalta la diferencia en la percepción que exhiben los agentes en torno a los determinantes de corto, mediano y largo plazo. En el primer caso, los determinantes responderían principalmente a efectos de microestructura, mientras que a mediano y largo plazo, la tasa de cambio respondería sobre todo a sus fundamentales. Los agentes también resaltan la mayor importancia de los factores internacionales con respecto a los locales en la dinámica de esta variable. Este estudio se concentra especialmente en los determinantes de corto plazo de la tasa de cambio. Con el objetivo de enmarcar la determinación de esta variable se presenta un modelo teórico desarrollado por Kyle (1985) donde se resalta la importancia de los factores de microestructura en un escenario de información asimétrica y agentes estratégicos. Con base en estos determinantes se estimó un modelo de microestructura, utilizando información intradía descargada directamente de las pantallas de negociación. Este modelo es utilizado para corroborar algunos hallazgos de la encuesta realizada. En particular, se valida la mayor importancia de factores internacionales respecto a los factores locales, y también se evalúa el impacto de la intervención del Banco de la República sobre la dinámica del tipo de cambio.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Murcia & Diego Rojas, 2014. "Determinantes de la tasa de cambio en Colombia: un enfoque de microestructura de mercados," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(74), pages 52-67, Junio.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:32:y:2014:i:74:p:52-67
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfredo Bateman y Javier E. Martinez & Javier Esteban Martinez, 2010. "Cuaderno 4: Análisis de las fuentes de oferta y demanda en el mercado de divisas," CUADERNOS DE DESARROLLO ECONOMICO 007586, SECRETARÍA DISTRITAL DE DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO.
    2. repec:col:000174:015708 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:lde:journl:y:2017:i:87:p:67-95 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de cambio; microestructura de mercados; modelos EGARCH; Encuesta de Microestructura;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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