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When the walk is not random: commodity prices and exchange rates

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  • Emanuel Kohlscheen
  • Fernando Avalos
  • Andreas Schrimpf

Abstract

We show that there is a distinct commodity-related driver of exchange rate movements, even at fairly high frequencies. Commodity prices predict exchange rate movements of 11 commodity-exporting countries in an in-sample panel setting for horizons up to two months. We also find evidence of systematic (pseudo) out-of-sample predictability, overturning the results of Meese and Rogoff (1983): information embedded in our country-specific commodity price indices clearly helps improving upon the predictive accuracy of the random walk in the majority of countries. We further show that the link between commodity prices and exchange rates is not driven by changes in global risk appetite or carry.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Kohlscheen & Fernando Avalos & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "When the walk is not random: commodity prices and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 551, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:551
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    1. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:29-:d:103932 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Afees A. Salisu & Wasiu Adekunle & Zachariah Emmanuel & Wasiu A. Alimi, 2018. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: The role of structural breaks and asymmetries," Working Papers 055, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    3. Martin Baumgaertner & Jens Klose, 2018. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Prices - A Global Country Analysis," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201812, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. José Renato Haas Ornelas & Roberto Baltieri Mauad, 2017. "Volatility risk premia and future commodities returns," BIS Working Papers 619, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. José Renato Haas Ornelas & Roberto Baltieri Mauad, 2017. "Volatility Risk Premia and Future Commodity Returns," Working Papers Series 455, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Rocío Gondo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2016. "Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America: the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," BIS Working Papers 568, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:40-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Assessing fiscal policy through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles," BIS Working Papers 638, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Enrique Alberola & Rocio Gondo & Marco Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2017. "Output gaps and stabilisation policies in Latin America: The effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 40-52, April.

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    Keywords

    commodities; exchange rates; interest rates;

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