IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Long-Run Determinants of the Brazilian Real: a closer look at commodities

  • Emanuel Kohlscheen

We use cointegration analysis to show that the long-run behavior of the Brazilian real effective exchange rate betweeen January 1999 and September 2012 can largely be explained by the price variation of a basket of five commodities - that accounted for 51% of Brazilian export revenues in 2011. We estimate that a 25% real variation in the price of these five commodities moves the fundamental long-run real exchange rate by about 10%. Changes in interest rate differentials do not explain short or long term movements in the exchange rate during this period. Furthermore, we find that deviations of the real effective exchange rate from the long run equilibrium level have an estimated half-life of approximately 8 months. The growing exports of oil & fuel and of iron ores, as well as the important oil discoveries in the pre-salt layer, suggest that commodity prices will continue to influence the value of the Real in future.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 314.

in new window

Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:314
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  2. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2012. "Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions," Working Papers Series 273, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Y.Chen & K. Rogoff, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 76, Netherlands Central Bank.
  4. Kohlscheen, E, 2009. "Emerging Floaters : Pass-Throughs and (Some) New Commodity Currencies," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 905, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
  8. Paruolo, Paolo, 1997. "Asymptotic Inference on the Moving Average Impact Matrix in Cointegrated 1(1) VAR Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 79-118, February.
  9. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
  10. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  12. Claudio Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 06/221, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.