IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arjebs/v9y2017i4p49-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Re-testing Wagner's Law: Structural breaks and disaggregated data for South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Mthokozisi Mlilo
  • Matamela Netshikulwe

Abstract

Direction of causality between government expenditure and output growth is pertinent for a developing country since a sizeable volume of economic resources is in the hands of the public sector. This paper investigates the Wagner's law in South Africa over the post-apartheid era, 1994-2015. This paper is unique to present studies since it uses disaggregated government expenditure and controls for structural breaks. The Granger non-causality test of Toda & Yamamoto, a superior technique compared to conventional Granger causality testing, is employed and this paper finds no support for Wagner's law. However, there is causality running from total government and education expenditures to output. This finding is in line with the Keynesian framework. It is recommended in the paper that the government should take an active role in promoting output growth through increases in education expenditures in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Mthokozisi Mlilo & Matamela Netshikulwe, 2017. "Re-testing Wagner's Law: Structural breaks and disaggregated data for South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(4), pages 49-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:49-61
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v9i4(J).1821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/1821/1475
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/1821
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22610/jebs.v9i4(J).1821?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    3. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, March.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    6. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    7. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    9. Magazzino, Cosimo & Forte, Francesco, 2010. "Optimal size of government and economic growth in EU-27," MPRA Paper 26669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mohammed Ershad Hussain & Mahfuzul Haque, 2016. "Impact of Economic Freedom on the Growth Rate: A Panel Data Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, March.
    11. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753.
    12. Bird, Richard M, 1971. "Wagner's o Law' of Expanding State Activity," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
    13. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    14. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    15. Clement A.U. Ighodaro & Dickson E. Oriakhi, 2010. "Does The Relationship Between Government Expenditure And Economic Growth Follow Wagner’s Law In Nigeria?," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(2), pages 185-198.
    16. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    17. Yaya Keho, 2015. "Revisiting Wagner’s Law for Selected African Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 4(4), pages 1-4.
    18. Emmanuel Ziramba, 2008. "Wagner'S Law: An Econometric Test For South Africa, 1960‐2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(4), pages 596-606, December.
    19. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    20. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
    21. Lutkepohl, H, 1989. "The Stability Assumption in Tests of Causality between Money and Income," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 139-150.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    2. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    4. Oyeyinka OMOSHORO-JONES, 2020. "Investigating The Government Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence For The Free State Province In A Multivariate Model," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 138-156.
    5. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    6. Chor Foon Tang & Ilhan Ozturk, 2017. "Can Inflation be Claimed as a Monetary Phenomenon? The Malaysian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 453-460.
    7. Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.
    8. Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability in the presence of structural breaks: Does overconfidence on resource exports hurt government’s ability to finance debt? Evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170317-117, December.
    9. Jalles João Tovar, 2015. "Is There A Stable Long-run Relationship Between Unemployment And Productivity? / Czy Istnieje Stabilny Długookresowy Związek Między Bezrobociem A Produktywnością?," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 18(2), pages 57-75, June.
    10. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    11. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2014. "Long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization, energy consumption and economic activity: Empirical evidence from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 324-331.
    13. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Monetary Aggregates and Macroeconomic Performance: The Portuguese Escudo, 1911–1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 719-740, October.
    14. Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    15. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    16. Senay ACIKGOZ & Anil AKCAGLAYAN, 2014. "Turkiye’de Cari Islemler Aciginin Surdurulebilirligi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 83-97.
    17. Özgür Özaydın* & H. Alper Güzel, 2019. "Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Business, Management and Economics Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(6), pages 77-85, 06-2019.
    18. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    19. Chor Foon Tang, 2015. "How Stable is the Savings-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia? The Bootstrap Simulation and Recursive Causality Tests," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, February.
    20. Yersh, Valeryia, 2020. "Current account sustainability and capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries," MPRA Paper 105440, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:49-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Tayyab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.