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Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?

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  • Hernán Rincón

    ()

  • Jorge Toro

    ()

Abstract

Capital controls and intervention in the foreign exchange market are two controversial policy options that many countries have adopted in the past in order to influence the exchange rate and moderate capital flows. Colombia has a long record in the use of these policies with mixed results and often non negligible costs. The objective of this paper is to evaluate for the case of Colombia the effectiveness of capital controls and central bank intervention for depreciating the exchange rate, reducing its volatility, and moderating the exchange rate vulnerability to external shocks. The paper uses high frequency data from 1993 to 2010, and a GARCH model of the peso/US dollar exchange rate return. The main findings indicate that neither capital controls nor central bank intervention used separately were successful for depreciating the exchange rate. On the contrary, they augmented its volatility. Nonetheless, when both policies were used simultaneously, a statistical significant effect was obtained by which the interaction of capital control and intervention in the foreign exchange market were effective to produce a daily average depreciation of the exchange rate, without increasing its volatility. This result however should be taken with caution given the special economic circumstances that characterized 2008, when most of this interaction happened.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernán Rincón & Jorge Toro, 2010. "Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007622, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:007622
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cordella, Tito, 2003. "Can short-term capital controls promote capital inflows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 737-745, October.
    2. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2009. "Intervenciones cambiarias y política monetaria en Colombia. Un análisis de VAR estructural," Borradores de Economia 580, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar & Diego Vásquez, 2010. "Impacto de las intervenciones cambiarias sobre el nivel y la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 12-69, Junio.
    4. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 2006. "Monetary Policy in Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 24(50), pages 12-47, June.
    5. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:cuf:journl:y:2018:v:19:i:1:magud:reinhart:rogoff is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hernando Vargas H, 2011. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 129-153 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "The Impact of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Colombia. An Event Study Approach," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, November.
    4. Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "Identifying the Effects of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks. Fear of Floating under Inflation targeting," Borradores de Economia 835, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    6. Broto, Carmen, 2013. "The effectiveness of forex interventions in four Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 224-240.
    7. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2015. "A Survey on the Effects of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012424, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    8. Lambert, F. & Ramos-Tallada, J. & Rebillard, C., 2011. "Capital controls and spillover effects: evidence from Latin-American countries," Working papers 357, Banque de France.
    9. Tobal Martín & Yslas Renato, 2016. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers 2016-14, Banco de México.
    10. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
    11. Karl F Habermeier & Annamaria Kokenyne & Chikako Baba, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Prudential Policies in Managing Large Inflows," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/14, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Gustavo Adler & Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2011. "Foreign Exchange Intervention; A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?," IMF Working Papers 11/165, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Miguel Fuentes & Pablo Pincheira & Juan Manuel Julio & Hernán Rincón & Santiago García-Verdú & Miguel Zerecero & Marco Vega & Erick Lahura & Ramon Moreno, 2014. "The effects of intraday foreign exchange market operations in Latin America: results for Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru," Borradores de Economia 849, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Madhusudan Mohanty & Bat-el Berger, 2013. "Central bank views on foreign exchange intervention," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 55-74 Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Luis F. Melo-Velandia, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Revisited: A New Way of Estimating Censored Models," Borradores de Economia 972, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital controls (Tobin tax); central bank intervention; GARCH regression model of the exchange rate return; effectiveness.;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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