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Intervenciones cambiarias y política monetaria en Colombia. Un análisis de VAR estructural

Author

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  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Enrique López E.

    ()

  • Martha Misas A.

    ()

Abstract

Se utiliza la metodología VAR estructural para evaluar el impacto conjunto de las intervenciones cambiarias y de la política monetaria convencional sobre la tasa de cambio, la tasa de interés y las demás variables del sistema. Se encuentra que las compras netas de divisas devalúan significativamente la tasa de cambio nominal durante un período cercano a 1 mes, en parte debido a que las compras no han sido esterilizadas en su totalidad, y a que han anunciado una política monetaria expansiva en el futuro (el llamado canal de signaling). Ello plantea conflictos potenciales de política en un régimen de inflación objetivo. La tasa de cambio nominal aparece determinada con igual fuerza por variables nominales y reales. No se encuentra evidencia de la paridad no cubierta, quizá por la incapacidad de capturar adecuadamente variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de tasa de cambio y de precios.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2009. "Intervenciones cambiarias y política monetaria en Colombia. Un análisis de VAR estructural," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 006127, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:006127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Fernando Daza Moreno & Jorge Mario Uribe, 2016. "Efectos de los cambios de la tasa de interés de Estados Unidos sobre Colombia, Perú y Chile," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL CARIBE 014794, UNIVERSIDAD DEL NORTE.
    2. Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "Identifying the Effects of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks. Fear of Floating under Inflation targeting," Borradores de Economia 835, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 95-125 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Juan David Durán-Vanegas, 2015. "Do foreign exchange interventions work as coordinating signals in Colombia?," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 169-175, Diciembre.
    5. Andrés Felipe Londoño & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, Junio.
    6. Tobal Martín & Yslas Renato, 2016. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers 2016-14, Banco de México.
    7. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Toro, 2010. "Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007622, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    8. Mauricio Lopera Castaño & Ramón Javier Mesa Callejas & Sergio Iván Restrepo Ochoa & Charle Augusto Londoño Henao, 2013. "Modelando el esquema de intervenciones del tipo de cambio para Colombia. una aplicación empírica de la técnica de regresión del cuantil bajo redes neu," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intervención cambiaria; política monetaria; VAR estructural.;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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