Asset price reactions to RPI announcements
UK asset price reactions to RPI announcements are examined from the early 1980s up to April 1997. Announcements are decomposed into their expected and unexpected components using survey data on inflation expectations. Asset prices do not appear to respond to the expected component of announcements, consistent with the predictions of the efficient markets hypothesis. The main sensitivity to inflation news appears in government bond prices, and the results are consistent with the 1992-97 inflation targeting regime being not fully credible, though its credibility increased over time.
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- Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "The Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Review and Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 644-657, September.