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Macroeconomic Surprises and the Inflation Compensation Curve in the Euro Area

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  • Jérôme Coffinet
  • Sébastien Frappa

Abstract

Using daily data stemming from inflation-indexed markets, we analyse the effects of numerous macroeconomic surprises on inflation compensation data - the sum of inflation expectations, risk and liquidity premia - in the euro area between 2 January 2004 and 31 December 2007. Our results suggest that when gauging short and medium-term inflation compensations, market operators are sensitive to surprises related to real activity and prices. Interestingly, oil futures prices tend to impact at some point on the short- and medium-ends of the inflation compensation curve. Notwithstanding, long-term inflation compensations remain generally unresponsive to macroeconomic surprises, attesting the high ECB's credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Coffinet & Sébastien Frappa, 2008. "Macroeconomic Surprises and the Inflation Compensation Curve in the Euro Area," Working papers 220, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:220
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Angel Garcia & Sebastian Werner, 2018. "Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2018/167, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Grothe, Magdalena & Lejsgaard Autrup, Søren, 2014. "Economic surprises and inflation expectations: Has anchoring of expectations survived the crisis?," Working Paper Series 1671, European Central Bank.
    3. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Speck, Christian, 2017. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1998, European Central Bank.
    6. Juan Angel García & Sebastian E. V. Werner, 2021. "Inflation News and Euro-Area Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 1-60, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Compensation ; Macroeconomic Surprise; Eurosystem;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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