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Economic derivatives

  • Blaise Gadanecz
  • Richhild Moessner
  • Christian Upper

Economic derivatives allow traders to take direct positions on the outcomes of macroeconomic data releases. In contrast to survey-based measures, the prices of economic derivatives provide information on the entire probability distribution underlying these expectations, not just point estimates. Measures for uncertainty derived from such distributions offer valuable information on how uncertainty about the economy evolves and affects financial markets.

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Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): (March)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0703h
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  1. Refet Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 11-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2006. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
  4. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  5. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
  6. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fabio Fornari, 2005. "The rise and fall of US dollar interest rate volatility: evidence from swaptions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  8. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
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