Economic derivatives allow traders to take direct positions on the outcomes of macroeconomic data releases. In contrast to survey-based measures, the prices of economic derivatives provide information on the entire probability distribution underlying these expectations, not just point estimates. Measures for uncertainty derived from such distributions offer valuable information on how uncertainty about the economy evolves and affects financial markets.
Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): (March)
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- Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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