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Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks

Author

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  • Lúcio Vinhas de Souza

    () (Erasmus University Rotterdam, and Free University Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract

Here the author empirically estimates if the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author follows and extends the methodology developed by Kuttner and Posen (2001), who perform a combined analysis of the individual effects of exchange rate regimes, central bank independence and announced targets in nominal variables, for a large set of developed and developing countries, and estimate that a setup that combines a free float, an independent monetary authority and inflation targeting yields an outcome that mimics the price stabilization advantages of a hard peg without its drawbacks in terms of extreme volatility. This sample of countries, not covered by the Kuttner and Posen study, supports their conclusions, for both nominal and real variables, testing for both the individual and combined effects of the frameworks, indicating that a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with a independent monetary authority and inflation targeting, would be Pareto-improving when compared to harder regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-054/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20020054
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    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/02054.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "The First Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 95-99, May.
    2. Mark Hallerberg & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza & William Roberts Clark, 2002. "Political Business Cycles in EU Accession Countries," European Union Politics, , vol. 3(2), pages 231-250, June.
    3. D. Mario Nuti, 2000. "The Costs and Benefits of Euro-sation in Central-Eastern Europe Before or Instead of EMU Membership," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 340, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-399, August.
    5. Jens Hölscher & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2001. "Exchange rate strategies of new EU entrants," Chapters, in: Eric J. Pentecost & André Van Poeck (ed.),European Monetary Integration, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Gros, Daniel & Suhrcke, Marc, 2000. "Ten years after: What is special about transition countries?," HWWA Discussion Papers 86, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    7. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
    8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
    9. Lucio Vinhas de Souza & Holger van Eden & Albert de Groot & Gerbert Romijn & Elisabeth Ledrut, 2001. "EMU and Enlargement: A Review of Policy Issues," Macroeconomics 0012019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Przemek Kowalski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "Exchange rate regimes and the real sector: a sectoral analysis of CEE Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 533-555.
    2. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    3. Schweickert, Rainer & Šikulová, Ivana, 2004. "Der Weg der Slowakei in die Europäische Union: vom Spätstarter zum Starreformer?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3434, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Langhammer, Rolf J. & Schweickert, Rainer, 2006. "EU integration and its implications for Asian economies: What we do and do not know," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 395-416, June.
    5. Bruno Merlevede & Joseph Plasmans & Bas van Aarle, 2003. "A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 221-250, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary authority independence; inflation targeting; exchange rate regimes; EU enlargement.;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies

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