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A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries

  • Bruno Merlevede
  • Joseph Plasmans

    ()

  • Bas van Aarle

This paper develops a small macro-economic model of the CEECs to analyze various aspects of integration with the current EU and the role of monetary and exchange rate strategies during the (pre-) accession phase. The model gives insight into both the adjustment of the internal balance (as for output and employment) and the external balance (as for exports and competitiveness) in the accession countries. The model provides more insight into the basic macroeconomic relationships governing macroeconomic adjustment in the accession countries and also the role of the integration with the EU in that adjustment. We perform empirical simulations of different scenarios and analyze the resulting macroeconomic adjustment. In particular, we compare how a macroeconomic shock in the current EU is transmitted to the accession countries under flexible and fixed euro exchange rates, respectively. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 14 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 221-250

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:221-250
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  1. Jusczak, Grazyna & Kazmierska, Maria Magdalena & Lapinska-Sobczak, Nina & Welfe, Wladyslaw, 1993. "Quarterly model of the polish economy in transition (with special emphasis on financial flows)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 127-149, April.
  2. Arratibel, Olga & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Thimann, Christian, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective," Working Paper Series 0132, European Central Bank.
  3. Schoors, Koen, 2002. " Should the Central and Eastern European Accession Countries Adopt the Euro before or after Accession?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 47-77.
  4. Hall, S. & Mizon, G.E. & Welfe, A., 1999. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9919, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  5. Douven, R. C. & Plasmans, J. E. J., 1996. "SLIM, a small linear interdependent model of eight EU-member states, the USA and Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 185-233, April.
  6. Ray Fair, 2001. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm205, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  7. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Munich Reprints in Economics 20209, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  8. L�cio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-054/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  9. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
  10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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