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Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?

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  • Lucio Vinhas de Souza

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Abstract

The aim of the paper is to empirically estimate whether the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author follows and extends the methodology developed by Kuttner and Posen (2001), who perform a combined analysis of the individual effects of exchange rate regimes, central bank independence and announced targets in nominal variables for a large set of developed and developing countries. They also estimate that a set-up combining a free float, an independent currency board and inflation targeting yields an outcome that mimics the price stabilisation advantages of a hard peg without its drawbacks in terms of extreme volatility. This sample of countries, not covered by the Kuttner and Posen study, supports their conclusions for both nominal and real variables, testing for both the individual and combined effects of the frameworks and indicating that a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with CBI and DIT, would be Pareto-improving when compared to harder regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2002-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Langhammer, Rolf J. & Schweickert, Rainer, 2006. "EU integration and its implications for Asian economies: What we know and what not," Kiel Working Papers 1264, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hammermann, Felix & Schweickert, Rainer & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "European monetary integration after EU enlargement," Kiel Discussion Papers 413, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Schweickert, Rainer & Šikulová, Ivana, 2004. "Der Weg der Slowakei in die Europäische Union: vom Spätstarter zum Starreformer?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3434, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Langhammer, Rolf J. & Schweickert, Rainer, 2006. "EU integration and its implications for Asian economies: What we do and do not know," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 395-416, June.
    5. Bruno Merlevede & Joseph Plasmans & Bas van Aarle, 2003. "A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 221-250, July.
    6. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-054/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Przemek Kowalski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "Exchange rate regimes and the real sector: a sectoral analysis of CEE Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 533-555.
    8. Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio & Ledrut, Elisabeth, 2002. "Alternative Paths Towards EMU: Lessons from an Expanded Mundell-Fleming Model for the Accession Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1132, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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