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Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?

  • Lucio Vinhas de Souza

    ()

The aim of the paper is to empirically estimate whether the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author follows and extends the methodology developed by Kuttner and Posen (2001), who perform a combined analysis of the individual effects of exchange rate regimes, central bank independence and announced targets in nominal variables for a large set of developed and developing countries. They also estimate that a set-up combining a free float, an independent currency board and inflation targeting yields an outcome that mimics the price stabilisation advantages of a hard peg without its drawbacks in terms of extreme volatility. This sample of countries, not covered by the Kuttner and Posen study, supports their conclusions for both nominal and real variables, testing for both the individual and combined effects of the frameworks and indicating that a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with CBI and DIT, would be Pareto-improving when compared to harder regimes.

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Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2002-2.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 11 Oct 2002
Date of revision: 12 Oct 2002
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2002-02
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Cukierman, A. & Miller, G.P. & Neyapti, B., 2000. "Central Bank Rerform, Liberalization and Inflation in Transition Economies - an International Perspective," Papers 00-19, Tel Aviv.
  3. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-99, August.
  4. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," Working Paper Series WP01-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
  6. Guy Debelle, 1997. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/35, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Vivek B. Arora & Olivier Jeanne, 2001. "Economic Integration and the Exchange Rate Regime; Some Lessons from Canada," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 01/1, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March.
  10. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  11. Jacob De Haan & Helge Berger & Erik Van Fraassen, 2001. "How to Reduce Inflation: An Independent Central Bank or A Currency Board? The Experience of the Baltic Countries," LICOS Discussion Papers 9601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  12. Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Lucio Vinhas de Souza & Holger van Eden & Albert de Groot & Gerbert Romijn & Elisabeth Ledrut, 2001. "EMU and Enlargement: A Review of Policy Issues," Macroeconomics 0012019, EconWPA.
  14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  15. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Labor Markets in Hard-Peg Accession Countries: The Baltics and Bulgaria," IMF Staff Country Reports 01/100, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
  17. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  18. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
  20. Daniel Gros & Marc Suhrcke, 2000. "Ten years after: what is special about transition countries?," Working Papers 56, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  21. Anne Marie Gulde & Juha Kähkönen & Peter Keller, 2000. "Pros and Cons of Currency Board Arrangements in the Lead-Up to EU Accession and Participation in the Euro Zone," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/1, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Lucjan T Orlowski, 1998. "Exchange-rate policies in central Europe and monetary union," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 58-78, September.
  23. repec:dgr:uvatin:20000085 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund.
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