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Is the European Monetary System a DM-Zone?

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  • De Grauwe, Paul

Abstract

In this paper we analyze issues of symmetry and asymmetry in the workings of the EMS. We first measure how interest rates react to speculative disturbances. We find that despite the fact that speculative shocks have usually forced the offshore interest rates of the weak currencies to increase by the full amount of the expected realignments, these countries managed (almost) completely to insulate their domestic interest rates from speculative crises. They achieved this by capital controls and other instruments of market segmentation. Second, using Granger causality tests, we find that the interdependence of interest rates is more symmetric than is usually assumed, involving, for example, an important two-way interdependece between Germany and France.

Suggested Citation

  • De Grauwe, Paul, 1989. "Is the European Monetary System a DM-Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:297
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:taf:rjapxx:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:89-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. J.M. Groeneveld & K.G. Koedijk & C.J.M. Kool, 1997. "Money, prices and the transition to EMU," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 481-504.
    3. Marie Podevin, 2001. "Interaction entre taux d'intérêt allemands et français : un réexamen de l'hypothèse de dominance allemande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 49-70.
    4. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-00975562 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hali Edison & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Credibility and Interest Rate Discretion in the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 351-368, October.
    6. Christian Bordes & Éric Girardin & Velayoudom Marimoutou, 1996. "Le nouveau SME est-il plus asymétrique que l'ancien ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 175-188.
    7. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March.
    8. William Bryant & Roselyne Joyeux, 2010. "Interest linkages between the US, UK and German interest rates: should the UK join the European Monetary Union?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 633-647.
    9. repec:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:40:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bremnes, Helge & Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1997. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of interest rates in the Eurocurrency market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 767-778, September.
    11. Antoine Berthou & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "How do Multiproduct Exporters React to a Change in Trade Costs?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(2), pages 326-353, April.
    12. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Schermer, Nicolien, 2009. "Europeanization or globalization? Transnational wage bargaining and the distribution of activity in European labor markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-192, August.
    13. M. Isabel García Gracia, 1995. "El SME: un modelo de comportamiento asimétrico," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 3, pages 41-68, Junio.
    14. Darren Pain & Ryland Thomas, 1997. "Real Interest Rate Linkages: Testing for Common Trends and Cycles," Bank of England working papers 65, Bank of England.
    15. Hali J. Edison & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Monetary policy independence in the ERM: was there any?," International Finance Discussion Papers 665, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
    17. Emilio Dominguez & Alfonso Novales, 2002. "A factor model of term structure slopes in Eurocurrency markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(9), pages 585-593.
    18. Kadow, Alexander & Cerrato, Mario & MacDonald, Ronald & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 700-718.
    19. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?," Working Paper Series 0154, European Central Bank.
    20. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 239-250, January.
    21. Karsten Biltoft & Christian Boersch, 1992. "Interest rate causality and asymmetry in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 297-306, October.
    22. Ignazio Angeloni & Alessandro Prati, 1996. "The identification of liquidity effects in the EMS: Italy 1991–1992," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 275-293, July.
    23. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.
    24. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 1995. "A rationale for macroeconomic policy coordination: Evidence based on the Spanish peseta," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 65-82, March.
    25. Kim, Soyoung, 2002. "Exchange rate stabilization in the ERM: identifying European monetary policy reactions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 413-434, June.

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