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Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes:The European Evidence 1974-1998

  • C.J.M. Kool
  • A. Lammertsma

In this paper, we empirically investigate the link between exchange rate accommodation and inflation persistence in Europe. We introduce the lagged level of the real exchange rate as an appropriate indicator of exchange rate accommodation. We correspondingly estimate a non-linear autoregressive inflation equation for ten European countries (excluding Germany) for the period 1974:1-1998:2. In the estimation procedure we allow for the presence of an unknown number of shifts in the mean of inflation. Our results provide supportive evidence for the existence of a positive link between exchange rate accommodation and inflation persistence for the smaller and more dependent ERM countries. No such link could be detected for the larger countries and the countries that remained outside the ERM for most of the period. Overall, our results provide modest support for the existence of the theoretically hypothesized link between exchange rate accommodation and inflation persistence.

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Paper provided by Utrecht School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 04-04.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0404
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  1. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  2. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
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  4. Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
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  11. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
  12. Michael Artis & Dilip Nachane, 1990. "Wages and prices in Europe: A test of the German leadership thesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 59-77, March.
  13. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  16. Burdekin, Richard C K & Siklos, Pierre L, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Shifts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 235-47, May.
  17. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December.
  19. Kool,C.J.M. & Lammertsma,A., 1997. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique:Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes: Comment," Research Memorandum 020, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  20. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  23. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "PPP Exchange-Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 158-65, February.
  24. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  25. M. F. Bleaney, 1999. "Price and Monetary Dynamics Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 99/67, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-38, May.
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  28. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
  29. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
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