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Forecasting threshold cointegrated systems

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  • De Gooijer, Jan G.
  • Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

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  • De Gooijer, Jan G. & Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni, 2004. "Forecasting threshold cointegrated systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-253.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:20:y:2004:i:2:p:237-253
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    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 293-318.
    3. Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-538, Sept.-Oct.
    4. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pages 533-576.
    5. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    6. Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-474, October.
    7. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
    8. D. A. Peel & A. E. H. Speight, 1998. "Threshold nonlinearities in output: some international evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 323-333.
    9. Balduzzi, Pierluigi, et al, 1998. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 26-50, February.
    10. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2002. "Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 397-407.
    11. Gonzalo, Jesus & Wolf, Michael, 2005. "Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 201-224.
    12. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    13. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
    14. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 121-130.
    15. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 281-291.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:8:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 143-159.
    18. Goodwin, Thomas H, 1993. "Business-Cycle Analysis with a Markov-Switching Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 331-339, July.
    19. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1996. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 495-517, Sept.-Oct.
    20. Gillman M. & Siklos & P.L.Silver & J.L., 1996. "Money Velocity with Costly Credit," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 515, The University of Melbourne.
    21. Pfann, Gerard A. & Schotman, Peter C. & Tschernig, Rolf, 1996. "Nonlinear interest rate dynamics and implications for the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 149-176.
    22. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pages 640-657.
    23. Guillem López-Casasnovas & Marc Saez, 2007. "A multilevel analysis on the determinants of regional health care expenditure: a note," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), pages 59-65.
    24. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.
    25. Saikkonen, Pentti, 2001. "Stability results for nonlinear vector autoregressions with an application to a nonlinear error correction model," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,93, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    3. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 169-183.
    4. Dueker, Michael J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2011. "Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 311-325.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2017. "Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 359-372.
    6. repec:emu:wpaper:dp15-01.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    7. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    8. Walter H. Fisher & Ben J. Heijdra, 2008. "Growth and the Ageing Joneses," CESifo Working Paper Series 2466, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen Miller, 2010. "Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes," Working Papers 15-01, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    11. Pawel Milobedzki, 2010. "The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 81-95.
    12. Jan G. De Gooijer & Antoni Vidiella-i-Anguera, 2005. "Estimating threshold cointegrated systems," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(8), pages 1-7.
    13. repec:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:45:p:4366-4378 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen Miller, 2013. "Forecasting Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using coincident and leading employment indexes," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 387-417.
    16. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:8:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:spr:scient:v:100:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-014-1257-z is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.

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