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A new approach of forecasting intermittent demand for spare parts inventories in the process industries

Author

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  • Z S Hua

    (University of Science & Technology of China)

  • B Zhang

    (University of Science & Technology of China)

  • J Yang

    (University of Science & Technology of China)

  • D S Tan

    (University of Science & Technology of China)

Abstract

Accurate demand forecasting is of vital importance in inventory management of spare parts in process industries, while the intermittent nature makes demand forecasting for spare parts especially difficult. With the wide application of information technology in enterprise management, more information and data are now available to improve forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we develop a new approach for forecasting the intermittent demand of spare parts. The described approach provides a mechanism to integrate the demand autocorrelated process and the relationship between explanatory variables and the nonzero demand of spare parts during forecasting occurrences of nonzero demands over lead times. Two types of performance measures for assessing forecast methods are also described. Using data sets of 40 kinds of spare parts from a petrochemical enterprise in China, we show that our method produces more accurate forecasts of lead time demands than do exponential smoothing, Croston's method and Markov bootstrapping method.

Suggested Citation

  • Z S Hua & B Zhang & J Yang & D S Tan, 2007. "A new approach of forecasting intermittent demand for spare parts inventories in the process industries," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(1), pages 52-61, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:58:y:2007:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602119
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602119
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    3. Hu, Qiwei & Boylan, John E. & Chen, Huijing & Labib, Ashraf, 2018. "OR in spare parts management: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(2), pages 395-414.
    4. Aiping Jiang & Qiuguo Chi & Junjun Gao & Maoguo Wu, 2019. "An Integrated Approach to Forecasting Intermittent Demand for Electric Power Materials," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1309-1335, April.
    5. Bacchetti, Andrea & Saccani, Nicola, 2012. "Spare parts classification and demand forecasting for stock control: Investigating the gap between research and practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 722-737.
    6. van Wingerden, E. & Basten, R.J.I. & Dekker, R. & Rustenburg, W.D., 2014. "More grip on inventory control through improved forecasting: A comparative study at three companies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 220-237.
    7. Lifang Xiao & Xiangyang Chen & Hao Wang, 2021. "Calculation and realization of new method grey residual error correction model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-13, July.
    8. Aysun Kapucugil Ikiz & Gizem Halil Utma, 2023. "Combined Forecasts of Intermittent Demand for Stock-keeping Units (SKUs)," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, June.
    9. Pinçe, Çerağ & Turrini, Laura & Meissner, Joern, 2021. "Intermittent demand forecasting for spare parts: A Critical review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Sinan Apak, 2015. "A Bayesian Approach Proposal For Inventory Cost and Demand Forecasting," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 3(2), pages 41-48, December.
    11. Van der Auweraer, Sarah & Boute, Robert N. & Syntetos, Aris A., 2019. "Forecasting spare part demand with installed base information: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 181-196.
    12. Jože Martin Rožanec & Blaž Fortuna & Dunja Mladenić, 2022. "Reframing Demand Forecasting: A Two-Fold Approach for Lumpy and Intermittent Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Z Hua & J Yang & F Huang & X Xu, 2009. "A static-dynamic strategy for spare part inventory systems with nonstationary stochastic demand," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(9), pages 1254-1263, September.
    14. Rego, José Roberto do & Mesquita, Marco Aurélio de, 2015. "Demand forecasting and inventory control: A simulation study on automotive spare parts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-16.
    15. Altay, Nezih & Rudisill, Frank & Litteral, Lewis A., 2008. "Adapting Wright's modification of Holt's method to forecasting intermittent demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 389-408, February.
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    17. Zhang, Bin & Xu, Xiaoyan & Hua, Zhongsheng, 2009. "A binary solution method for the multi-product newsboy problem with budget constraint," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 136-141, January.

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