Forecasting sales of slow and fast moving inventories
Adaptations of simple exponential smoothing are presented that aim to unify the task of forecasting demand for both slow and fast moving inventories. A feature of the adaptations is that they are designed to ensure that the resulting prediction distributions have only a nonnegative domain. A parametric bootstrap approach is proposed for generating empirical approximations for the so-called lead-time demand distribution, something required for inventory control calculations. The proposed methods are illustrated and their performance compared on real demand data for car parts.
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- Ord, J.K. & Koehler, A. & Snyder, R.D., 1995. "Estimation and Prediction for a Class of Dynamic Nonlinear Statistical Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Snyder, R. D., 1984. "Inventory control with the gamma probability distribution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 373-381, September.
- Willemain, Thomas R. & Smart, Charles N. & Shockor, Joseph H. & DeSautels, Philip A., 1994. "Forecasting intermittent demand in manufacturing: a comparative evaluation of Croston's method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 529-538, December.
- Harvey, Andrew & Snyder, Ralph D., 1990. "Structural time series models in inventory control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198, July.
- Johnston, F. R. & Boylan, J. E., 1996. "Forecasting intermittent demand: A comparative evaluation of croston's method. Comment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 297-298, June.
- Snyder, R.D. & Koehler, A.B. & Ord, J.K., 1998. "Lead Time demand for Simple Exponential Smoothing," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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