IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v22y2006i4p637-666.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II

Author

Listed:
  • Gardner, Everette Jr.

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:22:y:2006:i:4:p:637-666
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(06)00039-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhao, Xiande & Xie, Jinxing & Leung, Janny, 2002. "The impact of forecasting model selection on the value of information sharing in a supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 321-344, October.
    2. A. C. Harvey, 1986. "Analysis and Generalisation of a Multivariate Exponential Smoothing Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 374-380, March.
    3. Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Ord, J. Keith, 2001. "Forecasting models and prediction intervals for the multiplicative Holt-Winters method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 269-286.
    4. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    5. Archibald, Blyth C., 1990. "Parameter space of the Holt-winters' model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 199-209, July.
    6. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    7. Mahmoud, E & Motwani, J & Rice, G, 1990. "Forecasting US exports: An illustration using time series and econometric models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 375-382.
    8. Schnaars, Steven P., 1986. "A comparison of extrapolation models on yearly sales forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 71-85.
    9. Chan, Chi Kin & Kingsman, Brian G. & Wong, H., 1999. "The value of combining forecasts in inventory management - a case study in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 199-210, September.
    10. Taylor, James W., 2004. "Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 273-286.
    11. Fildes, Robert & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros & Meade, Nigel, 1998. "Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-358, September.
    12. R D Snyder & A B Koehler & J K Ord, 1999. "Lead time demand for simple exponential smoothing: an adjustment factor for the standard deviation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(10), pages 1079-1082, October.
    13. David J. Wright, 1986. "Forecasting Data Published at Irregular Time Intervals Using an Extension of Holt's Method," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 499-510, April.
    14. G L Shoesmith & J P Pinder, 2001. "Potential inventory cost reductions using advanced time series forecasting techniques," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 52(11), pages 1267-1275, November.
    15. Snyder, Ralph, 2002. "Forecasting sales of slow and fast moving inventories," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 684-699, August.
    16. [Reference to Proietti], Tommaso, 2000. "Comparing seasonal components for structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 247-260.
    17. Williams, Dan W. & Miller, Don, 1999. "Level-adjusted exponential smoothing for modeling planned discontinuities1," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 273-289, July.
    18. Andrew Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Signal extraction and the formulation of unobserved components models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 84-107.
    19. Chandra, Charu & Grabis, Janis, 2005. "Application of multi-steps forecasting for restraining the bullwhip effect and improving inventory performance under autoregressive demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 337-350, October.
    20. A A Syntetos & J E Boylan & J D Croston, 2005. "On the categorization of demand patterns," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(5), pages 495-503, May.
    21. Douglas A. Samuelson, 1999. "Predictive Dialing for Outbound Telephone Call Centers," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 66-81, October.
    22. Zhang, Xiaolong, 2004. "The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 15-27, March.
    23. John O. McClain, 1974. "Dynamics of Exponential Smoothing with Trend and Seasonal Terms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(9), pages 1300-1304, May.
    24. Mckenzie, Ed., 1986. "Error analysis for winters' additive seasonal forecasting system," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 373-382.
    25. Rossana, Robert J & Seater, John J, 1995. "Temporal Aggregation and Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 441-451, October.
    26. Ramanathan, Ramu & Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive W. J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid & Brace, Casey, 1997. "Shorte-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-174, June.
    27. Bartolomei, Sonia M. & Sweet, Arnold L., 1989. "A note on a comparison of exponential smoothing methods for forecasting seasonal series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 111-116.
    28. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
    29. Taylor, James W., 2003. "Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 715-725.
    30. Vokurka, Robert J. & Flores, Benito E. & Pearce, Stephen L., 1996. "Automatic feature identification and graphical support in rule-based forecasting: a comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 495-512, December.
    31. Ramesh Sharda & Kathryn D. Musser, 1986. "Financial Futures Hedging Via Goal Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(8), pages 933-947, August.
    32. Bodo, Giorgio & Signorini, Luigi Federico, 1987. "Short-term forecasting of the industrial production index," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 245-259.
    33. Yar, Mohammed & Chatfield, Chris, 1990. "Prediction intervals for the Holt-Winters forecasting procedure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 127-137.
    34. Shah, Chandra, 1997. "Model selection in univariate time series forecasting using discriminant analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 489-500, December.
    35. Tashman, Leonard J., 2000. "Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: an analysis and review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 437-450.
    36. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    37. Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
    38. Snyder, Ralph D. & Koehler, Anne B. & Hyndman, Rob J. & Ord, J. Keith, 2004. "Exponential smoothing models: Means and variances for lead-time demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 444-455, October.
    39. Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2000. "The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 521-530.
    40. James W. Taylor, 2004. "Smooth transition exponential smoothing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 385-404.
    41. P C Bell, 2000. "Forecasting demand variation when there are stockouts," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(3), pages 358-363, March.
    42. Gardner, Everette S. & Anderson, Elizabeth A., 1997. "Focus forecasting reconsidered," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 501-508, December.
    43. Everette S. Gardner, 1990. "Evaluating Forecast Performance in an Inventory Control System," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 490-499, April.
    44. Syntetos, A. A. & Boylan, J. E., 2001. "On the bias of intermittent demand estimates," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 457-466, May.
    45. Anne B. Koehler & Rob J. Hyndman & Ralph D. Snyder & J. Keith Ord, 2005. "Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 17-37.
    46. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737.
    47. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 1991. "Exponential smoothing: The effect of initial values and loss functions on post-sample forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 317-330, November.
    48. Everette S. Gardner, Jr., 1988. "A Simple Method of Computing Prediction Intervals for Time Series Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 541-546, April.
    49. Archibald, Blyth C. & Koehler, Anne B., 2003. "Normalization of seasonal factors in Winters' methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 143-148.
    50. H. Theil & S. Wage, 1964. "Some Observations on Adaptive Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 198-206, January.
    51. S. A. Roberts, 1982. "A General Class of Holt-Winters Type Forecasting Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(7), pages 808-820, July.
    52. Gardner, Everette Jr, 1993. "Forecasting the failure of component parts in computer systems: A case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 245-253, August.
    53. Tashman, Leonard J. & Kruk, Joshua M., 1996. "The use of protocols to select exponential smoothing procedures: A reconsideration of forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 235-253, June.
    54. Chris Chatfield, 1995. "Model Uncertainty, Data Mining and Statistical Inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 158(3), pages 419-444, May.
    55. Phillip G. Enns & Joseph A. Machak & W. Allen Spivey & William J. Wrobleski, 1982. "Forecasting Applications of an Adaptive Multiple Exponential Smoothing Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(9), pages 1035-1044, September.
    56. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    57. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    58. M. Nerlove & S. Wage, 1964. "On the Optimality of Adaptive Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 207-224, January.
    59. J. Scott Armstrong, 1984. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 14(6), pages 52-66, December.
    60. Everette S. Gardner, 1999. "Note: Rule-Based Forecasting vs. Damped-Trend Exponential Smoothing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(8), pages 1169-1176, August.
    61. Snyder, Ralph D & Shami, Roland G, 2001. "Exponential Smoothing of Seasonal Data: A Comparison," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 197-202, April.
    62. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
    63. A Weintraub & J Aboud & C Fernandez & G Laporte & E Ramirez, 1999. "An emergency vehicle dispatching system for an electric utility in Chile," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(7), pages 690-696, July.
    64. Laurence Broze & Guy Melard, 1990. "Exponential smoothing: estimation by maximum likelihood," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13716, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    65. Segura, J. V. & Vercher, E., 2001. "A spreadsheet modeling approach to the Holt-Winters optimal forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 375-388, June.
    66. J Keith Ord & Ralph D Snyder & Anne B Koehler & Rob J Hyndman & Mark Leeds, 2005. "Time Series Forecasting: The Case for the Single Source of Error State Space," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    67. Weatherford, Larry R. & Kimes, Sheryl E., 2003. "A comparison of forecasting methods for hotel revenue management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 401-415.
    68. Geriner, Pamela Texter & Ord, J. Keith, 1991. "Automatic forecasting using explanatory variables: A comparative study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 127-140, August.
    69. Johnston, F. R. & Boylan, J. E., 1996. "Forecasting intermittent demand: A comparative evaluation of croston's method. Comment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 297-298, June.
    70. Adya, Monica & Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott & Kennedy, Miles, 2001. "Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 143-157.
    71. Flores, Benito E. & Pearce, Stephen L., 2000. "The use of an expert system in the M3 competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 485-496.
    72. Willemain, Thomas R. & Smart, Charles N. & Schwarz, Henry F., 2004. "A new approach to forecasting intermittent demand for service parts inventories," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 375-387.
    73. Snyder, Ralph D. & Koehler, Anne B. & Ord, J. Keith, 2002. "Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-18.
    74. Andrews, Rick L, 1994. "Forecasting Performance of Structural Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 129-133, January.
    75. Gerald D. Cohen, 1963. "A Note on Exponential Smoothing and Autocorrelated Inputs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 361-367, June.
    76. Leven, Erik & Segerstedt, Anders, 2004. "Inventory control with a modified Croston procedure and Erlang distribution," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 361-367, August.
    77. Ord, Keith, 2004. "Charles Holt's report on exponentially weighted moving averages: an introduction and appreciation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-3.
    78. Lawton, Richard, 1998. "How should additive Holt-Winters estimates be corrected?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 393-403, September.
    79. Pantazopoulos, Sotiris N. & Pappis, Costas P., 1996. "A new adaptive method for extrapolative forecasting algorithms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-111, October.
    80. Rasmussen, Rasmus, 2004. "On time series data and optimal parameters," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 111-120, April.
    81. James W. Taylor & Derek W. Bunn, 1999. "A Quantile Regression Approach to Generating Prediction Intervals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 225-237, February.
    82. Chatfield, Christopher & Koehler, Anne B., 1991. "On confusing lead time demand with h-period-ahead forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 239-240, August.
    83. Chen, Chunhang, 1997. "Robustness properties of some forecasting methods for seasonal time series: A Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 269-280, June.
    84. I. Gijbels & A. Pope & M. P. Wand, 1999. "Understanding exponential smoothing via kernel regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(1), pages 39-50.
    85. Holmes, R. A., 1986. "Leading indicators of industrial employment in British Columbia," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 87-100.
    86. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
    87. Satchell, Steve & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "On the optimality of adaptive expectations: Muth revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 407-416, September.
    88. Snyder, Ralph D & Ord, J Keith & Koehler, Anne B, 2001. "Prediction Intervals for ARIMA Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 217-225, April.
    89. Leung, Mark T. & Daouk, Hazem & Chen, An-Sing, 2000. "Forecasting stock indices: a comparison of classification and level estimation models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 173-190.
    90. Rosas, A. Lorena & Guerrero, Victor M., 1994. "Restricted forecasts using exponential smoothing techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 515-527, December.
    91. Sharp, John A. & Price, David H. R., 1990. "Experience curve models in the electricity supply industry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 531-540, December.
    92. Geurts, Michael D. & Patrick Kelly, J., 1986. "Forecasting retail sales using alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 261-272.
    93. Gardner, Everette Jr. & Anderson-Fletcher, Elizabeth A. & Wicks, Angela M., 2001. "Further results on focus forecasting vs. exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 287-293.
    94. Newbold, Paul & Bos, Ted, 1989. "On exponential smoothing and the assumption of deterministic trend plus white noise data-generating models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 523-527.
    95. Dejonckheere, J. & Disney, S. M. & Lambrecht, M. R. & Towill, D. R., 2003. "Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect: A control theoretic approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 567-590, June.
    96. Harvey, Andrew & Snyder, Ralph D., 1990. "Structural time series models in inventory control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198, July.
    97. Hyndman, Rob J. & Billah, Baki, 2003. "Unmasking the Theta method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 287-290.
    98. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    99. Syntetos, Aris A. & Boylan, John E., 2005. "The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 303-314.
    100. John Bossons, 1966. "The Effects of Parameter Misspecification and Non-Stationarity on the Applicability of Adaptive Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(9), pages 659-669, May.
    101. Bianchi, Lisa & Jarrett, Jeffrey & Choudary Hanumara, R., 1998. "Improving forecasting for telemarketing centers by ARIMA modeling with intervention," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 497-504, December.
    102. Miller, Tan & Liberatore, Matthew, 1993. "Seasonal exponential smoothing with damped trends : An application for production planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 509-515, December.
    103. Arinze, B, 1994. "Selecting appropriate forecasting models using rule induction," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 647-658, November.
    104. Huss, William R., 1985. "Comparative analysis of company forecasts and advanced time series techniques using annual electric utility energy sales data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 217-239.
    105. Grubb, Howard & Mason, Alexina, 2001. "Long lead-time forecasting of UK air passengers by Holt-Winters methods with damped trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 71-82.
    106. Koehler, Anne B., 1990. "An inappropriate prediction interval," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 557-558, December.
    107. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    108. Rob J. Hyndman & Lydia Shenstone, 2005. "Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 389-402.
    109. Carreno, Jose Juan & Madinaveitia, Jesus, 1990. "A modification of time series forecasting methods for handling announced price increases," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 479-484, December.
    110. Chambers, M. L. & Eglese, R. W., 1988. "Forecasting demand for mail order catalogue lines during the season," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 131-138, March.
    111. Lee, TS & Cooper, FW & Adam, EE, 1993. "The effects of forecasting errors on the total cost of operations," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 541-550, September.
    112. Heuts, R. M. J. & Bronckers, J. H. J. M., 1988. "Forecasting the Dutch heavy truck market : A multivariate approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 57-79.
    113. S. M. Pandit & S. M. Wu, 1974. "Exponential Smoothing as a Special Case of a Linear Stochastic System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 22(4), pages 868-879, August.
    114. Lin, Winston T., 1989. "Modeling and forecasting hospital patient movements: Univariate and multiple time series approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 195-208.
    115. P. J. Harrison, 1967. "Exponential Smoothing and Short-Term Sales Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(11), pages 821-842, July.
    116. Thury, Gerhard, 1985. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Austria : An analysis of accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 111-121.
    117. Tomáv{s} Cipra & José Trujillo & Asunción Robio, 1995. "Holt-Winters Method with Missing Observations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 174-178, January.
    118. Dejonckheere, J. & Disney, S. M. & Lambrecht, M. R. & Towill, D. R., 2004. "The impact of information enrichment on the Bullwhip effect in supply chains: A control engineering perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(3), pages 727-750, March.
    119. Willemain, Thomas R. & Smart, Charles N. & Shockor, Joseph H. & DeSautels, Philip A., 1994. "Forecasting intermittent demand in manufacturing: a comparative evaluation of Croston's method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 529-538, December.
    120. Koehler, Anne B. & Murphree, Emily S., 1988. "A comparison of results from state space forecasting with forecasts from the Makridakis Competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 45-55.
    121. Pfeffermann, D. & Allon, J., 1989. "Multivariate exponential smoothing: Method and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 83-98.
    122. Price, D. H. R. & Sharp, J. A., 1986. "A comparison of the performance of different univariate forecasting methods in a model of capacity acquisition in UK electricity supply," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 333-348.
    123. Yasushi Masuda & Seungjin Whang, 1999. "Dynamic Pricing for Network Service: Equilibrium and Stability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(6), pages 857-869, June.
    124. A H C Eaves & B G Kingsman, 2004. "Forecasting for the ordering and stock-holding of spare parts," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 431-437, April.
    125. Gardner, Everette Jr. & Koehler, Anne B., 2005. "Comments on a patented bootstrapping method for forecasting intermittent demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 617-618.
    126. Gorr, Wilpen & Olligschlaeger, Andreas & Thompson, Yvonne, 2003. "Short-term forecasting of crime," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 579-594.
    127. J W Taylor, 2003. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 799-805, August.
    128. John O. McClain & L. Joseph Thomas, 1973. "Response-Variance Tradeoffs in Adaptive Forecasting," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 554-568, April.
    129. R García-Flores & X Z Wang & T F Burgess, 2003. "Tuning inventory policy parameters in a small chemical company," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(4), pages 350-361, April.
    130. Chatfield, Chris & Yar, Mohammed, 1991. "Prediction intervals for multiplicative Holt-Winters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 31-37, May.
    131. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
    132. Gardner, Everette Jr. & Diaz-Saiz, Joaquin, 2002. "Seasonal adjustment of inventory demand series: a case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 117-123.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    2. Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. R Fildes & K Nikolopoulos & S F Crone & A A Syntetos, 2008. "Forecasting and operational research: a review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(9), pages 1150-1172, September.
    5. A A Syntetos & J E Boylan & S M Disney, 2009. "Forecasting for inventory planning: a 50-year review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 149-160, May.
    6. Petropoulos, Fotios & Makridakis, Spyros & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2014. "‘Horses for Courses’ in demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 152-163.
    7. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
    8. Snyder, Ralph D. & Ord, J. Keith & Beaumont, Adrian, 2012. "Forecasting the intermittent demand for slow-moving inventories: A modelling approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 485-496.
    9. Altay, Nezih & Rudisill, Frank & Litteral, Lewis A., 2008. "Adapting Wright's modification of Holt's method to forecasting intermittent demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 389-408, February.
    10. Theodosiou, Marina, 2011. "Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1178-1195, October.
    11. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    12. Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2013. "Intermittent demand forecasts with neural networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 198-206.
    13. Taylor, James W., 2007. "Forecasting daily supermarket sales using exponentially weighted quantile regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 178(1), pages 154-167, April.
    14. Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2014. "On intermittent demand model optimisation and selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 180-190.
    15. James W. Taylor, 2004. "Smooth transition exponential smoothing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 385-404.
    16. Li, Qinyun & Disney, Stephen M. & Gaalman, Gerard, 2014. "Avoiding the bullwhip effect using Damped Trend forecasting and the Order-Up-To replenishment policy," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 3-16.
    17. Ferbar Tratar, Liljana & Mojškerc, Blaž & Toman, Aleš, 2016. "Demand forecasting with four-parameter exponential smoothing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(PA), pages 162-173.
    18. Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan & van der Laan, Erwin A., 2017. "Exploiting elapsed time for managing intermittent demand for spare parts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 958-969.
    19. Saoud, Patrick & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Boylan, John E., 2022. "Approximations for the Lead Time Variance: a Forecasting and Inventory Evaluation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:22:y:2006:i:4:p:637-666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.