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Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error

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  • Armstrong, J. Scott

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  • Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:22:y:2006:i:3:p:583-598
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
    2. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    3. Bunn, Derek W. & Vassilopoulos, Angelos I., 1999. "Comparison of seasonal estimation methods in multi-item short-term forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 431-443, October.
    4. Schnaars, Steven P., 1986. "A comparison of extrapolation models on yearly sales forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 71-85.
    5. repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fildes, Robert & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros & Meade, Nigel, 1998. "Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-358, September.
    7. Green, Kesten C., 2002. "Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344.
    8. Miller, Tan & Liberatore, Matthew, 1993. "Seasonal exponential smoothing with damped trends : An application for production planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 509-515, December.
    9. Vokurka, Robert J. & Flores, Benito E. & Pearce, Stephen L., 1996. "Automatic feature identification and graphical support in rule-based forecasting: a comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 495-512, December.
    10. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Structured analogies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 365-376.
    11. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    12. Gardner, Everette S. & Anderson, Elizabeth A., 1997. "Focus forecasting reconsidered," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 501-508, December.
    13. Everette S. Gardner, 1990. "Evaluating Forecast Performance in an Inventory Control System," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 490-499, April.
    14. Gardner, Everette Jr, 1993. "Forecasting the failure of component parts in computer systems: A case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 245-253, August.
    15. Dangerfield, Byron J. & Morris, John S., 1992. "Top-down or bottom-up: Aggregate versus disaggregate extrapolations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 233-241, October.
    16. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    17. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred & Yokum, J. Thomas, 2005. "Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 25-36.
    18. Paul Goodwin, 2005. "How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 1, pages 8-12, June.
    19. Miller, Don M. & Williams, Dan, 2003. "Shrinkage estimators of time series seasonal factors and their effect on forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 669-684.
    20. Roy Batchelor & Pami Dua, 1995. "Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 68-75, January.
    21. Adya, Monica, 2000. "Corrections to rule-based forecasting: findings from a replication," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 125-127.
    22. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
    23. Adya, Monica & Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott & Kennedy, Miles, 2001. "Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 143-157.
    24. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Neural networks: Forecasting breakthrough or passing fad?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3, April.
    25. Fildes, Robert, 2006. "The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 415-432.
    26. Green, Kesten C., 2005. "Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 463-472.
    27. Gorr, Wilpen & Olligschlaeger, Andreas & Thompson, Yvonne, 2003. "Short-term forecasting of crime," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 579-594.
    28. Adya, Monica & Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred & Kennedy, Miles, 2000. "An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 477-484.
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