IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/for/ijafaa/y2005i1p8-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Goodwin

Abstract

Many of us make judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts. But do these improve accuracy? Paul Goodwin explains when you should avoid the temptation to adjust and shows how the accuracy of your interventions can be improved. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Goodwin, 2005. "How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 1, pages 8-12, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:8-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0382 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Önkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep SayIm, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68, January.
    4. Trapero, Juan R. & Pedregal, Diego J. & Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N., 2013. "Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 234-243.
    5. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2014. "New Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Predictions based on Monte Carlo and Bootstrap Simulations: An Application to Bulgarian and Romanian Inflation || Nuevas estrategias para mejorar la exactitud," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 18(1), pages 112-129, December.
    6. Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2012. "Using Internet Data to Account for Special Events in Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 382, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2012. "Using Internet Data to Account for Special Events in Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 0382, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Önkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep Sayım, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68.
    9. Wang, Chi-hsiang & Grozev, George & Seo, Seongwon, 2012. "Decomposition and statistical analysis for regional electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 313-325.
    10. Syntetos, Aris A. & Kholidasari, Inna & Naim, Mohamed M., 2016. "The effects of integrating management judgement into OUT levels: In or out of context?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 853-863.
    11. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
    12. Sanchez-Ubeda, Eugenio Fco. & Berzosa, Ana, 2007. "Modeling and forecasting industrial end-use natural gas consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 710-742, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2005:i:1:p:8-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pam Stroud). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iiforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.