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Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence

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  • Green, Kesten C.

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  • Green, Kesten C., 2005. "Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 463-472.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:3:p:463-472
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudia Keser & Roy Gardner, 1999. "Strategic behavior of experienced subjects in a common pool resource game," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 28(2), pages 241-252.
    2. Green, Kesten C., 2002. "Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344.
    3. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E. & Slonim, Robert L. & Barron, Greg, 2002. "Predictive value and the usefulness of game theoretic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 359-368.
    5. Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Forecasting games: can game theory win?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 369-374.
    6. Thomas S. Gruca & K. Ravi Kumar & D. Sudharshan, 1992. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Defensive Response to Entry Using a Coupled Response Function Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 348-358.
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    1. repec:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:1:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 69-80, January.
    3. Solhdoost, Mohsen, 2025. "Forecasting Israel-Iran Escalation Bands with Structured Judgment Using Artificial Intelligence Algorithms," SocArXiv jkzby_v1, Center for Open Science.
    4. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2007. "The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 287-299, June.
    5. J. Scott Armstrong & Philippe Jacquart, 2013. "The Ombudsman: Is the Evidence Sufficient to Take Action on Executive Pay? Reply to Commentators," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 602-604, December.
    6. de Villiers, Rouxelle & Woodside, Arch G. & Marshall, Roger, 2016. "Making tough decisions competently: Assessing the value of product portfolio planning methods, devil’s advocacy, group discussion, weighting priorities, and evidenced-based information," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(8), pages 2849-2862.
    7. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    8. Wright, George & Rowe, Gene, 2011. "Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-13, January.
    9. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos & Waleed S. Alghassab & Konstantia Litsiou & Stelios Sapountzis, 2019. "Long-Term Economic Forecasting with Structured Analogies and Interaction Groups," Working Papers 19018, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    10. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    11. Gomez, Yolanda & Rios, Jesus & Rios Insua, David & Vila, Jose, 2025. "Forecasting adversarial actions using judgment decomposition-recomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 76-91.
    12. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    13. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.

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