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Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research

  • J. S. Armstrong

    (The Wharton School)

Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for- future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/get/papers/0502/0502025.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0502025.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502025
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Armstrong, J Scott, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 549-64, October.
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