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Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research


  • J. S. Armstrong

    (The Wharton School)


Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for- future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502025
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Armstrong, J Scott, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 549-564, October.
    2. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact," MPRA Paper 81672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984," General Economics and Teaching 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making," General Economics and Teaching 0412023, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    forecasting; methods; extrapolation;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

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