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Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research


  • J. S. Armstrong

    (The Wharton School)


Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for- future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502025
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Armstrong, J Scott, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 549-564, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making," General Economics and Teaching 0412023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jaganathan, Srihari & Prakash, P.K.S., 2020. "A combination-based forecasting method for the M4-competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 98-104.
    3. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984," General Economics and Teaching 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pathak, Pankaj & Srivastava, Rajiv Ranjan & Ojasvi,, 2017. "Assessment of legislation and practices for the sustainable management of waste electrical and electronic equipment in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 220-232.

    More about this item


    forecasting; methods; extrapolation;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching


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