IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpgt/0412006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984

Author

Listed:
  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960.

Suggested Citation

  • JS Armstrong, 2004. "Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984," General Economics and Teaching 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0412/0412006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    2. Robert Levine, 1960. "Capital Expenditures Forecasts by Individual Firms," NBER Chapters,in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 351-368 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
    4. Arthur Okun, 1960. "The Value of Anticipations Data in Forecasting National Product," NBER Chapters,in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 407-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
    6. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fildes, Robert A & Fitzgerald, M Desmond, 1983. "The Use of Information in Balance of Payments Forecasting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(199), pages 249-258, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; forecasting research;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.