Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984
Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, EconWPA.
- Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
- Fildes, Robert A & Fitzgerald, M Desmond, 1983. "The Use of Information in Balance of Payments Forecasting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(199), pages 249-58, August.
- Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
- Arthur Okun, 1960. "The Value of Anticipations Data in Forecasting National Product," NBER Chapters, in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 407-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
- Robert Levine, 1960. "Capital Expenditures Forecasts by Individual Firms," NBER Chapters, in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 351-368 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.