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Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984

  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/get/papers/0412/0412006.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0412006.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412006
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
  2. Arthur Okun, 1960. "The Value of Anticipations Data in Forecasting National Product," NBER Chapters, in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 407-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert Levine, 1960. "Capital Expenditures Forecasts by Individual Firms," NBER Chapters, in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 351-368 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, EconWPA.
  5. Fildes, Robert A & Fitzgerald, M Desmond, 1983. "The Use of Information in Balance of Payments Forecasting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(199), pages 249-58, August.
  6. Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
  7. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
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