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Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research

  • J. S. Armstrong

    (The Wharton School)

  • R. Brodie

    (University of Canterbury)

  • S. McIntyre

    (Santa Clara University)

This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of marketing, and then review the literature in light of that framework. Particular emphasis is given to a pragmatic interpretation of the literature and findings. Suggestions are made on what research is needed.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/get/papers/0502/0502023.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0502023.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502023
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 23
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Leonard M. Lodish, 1971. "Callplan: An Interactive Salesman's Call Planning System," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4-Part-II), pages P25-P40, December.
  2. Geurts, Michael D. & Patrick Kelly, J., 1986. "Forecasting retail sales using alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 261-272.
  3. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
  4. Rink, David R. & Swan, John E., 1979. "Product life cycle research: A literature review," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 219-242, September.
  5. Hagerty, Michael R., 1987. "Conditions under which econometric models will outperform naive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 457-460.
  6. Brodie, Roderick J. & De Kluyver, Cornelis A., 1987. "A comparison of the short term forecasting accuracy of econometric and naive extrapolation models of market share," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 423-437.
  7. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations," General Economics and Teaching 0412025, EconWPA.
  8. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
  9. Dhrymes, Phoebus J. & Peristiani, Stavros C., 1988. "A comparison of the forecasting performance of WEFA and ARIMA time series methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 81-101.
  10. Tyebjee, Tyzoon T., 1987. "Behavioral biases in new product forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 393-404.
  11. Wilton, Peter C & Pessemier, Edgar A, 1981. " Forecasting the Ultimate Acceptance of an Innovation: The Effects of Information," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 162-71, September.
  12. Dipankar Chakravarti & Andrew Mitchell & Richard Staelin, 1979. "Judgment Based Marketing Decision Models: An Experimental Investigation of the Decision Calculus Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(3), pages 251-263, March.
  13. Vijay Mahajan & Eitan Muller & Subhash Sharma, 1984. "An Empirical Comparison of Awareness Forecasting Models of New Product Introduction," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 179-197.
  14. Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
  15. Huber, Joel, 1975. " Bootstrapping of Data and Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 229-34, December.
  16. P. Leone, Robert, 1987. "Forecasting the effect of an environmental change on market performance: An intervention time-series approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 463-478.
  17. John D. C. Little, 1970. "Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(8), pages B466-B485, April.
  18. Lawrence, Michael J. & Edmundson, Robert H. & O'Connor, Marcus J., 1985. "An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 25-35.
  19. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele & Lusk, Ed & Belhadjali, Moncef, 1987. "Confidence intervals: An empirical investigation of the series in the M-competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 489-508.
  20. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1975. "Sales forecasting methods and accuracy," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 69-73, December.
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