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Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations

Author

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  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of the Britishowned Falkland Islands Company, a monopoly that owned 43 percent of the land in the Falklands, employed 51 per cent of the labor force, had a monopoly on all wool exports, and operated the steamship run to South America. The stockholders were willing to sell especially because the Argentine consortium was reportedly willing to pay “almost any price.” But the British government stepped in to prevent the sale, (Murray N. Rothbard, as quoted in The Wall Street Journal, 8 April 1982). In my opinion, the actual solution in the Falklands War left both sides worse off than before. In contrast, a sale of the Falklands would have benefited both sides in the short run, and, as companies seldom wage shooting wars, this would probably have been a good long-range solution. Apparently, Britain did not predict how the Argentine generals would act when it blocked the sale, and the Argentine generals did not predict how Britain would respond when they occupied the islands. Accurate forecasting by each side in this situation might have led to a superior solution. This study examines the evidence on alternative procedures that can be used to forecast outcomes in conflict situations. I first define what is meant here by conflict situations. Next, I describe alternative forecasting methods. This is followed by a presentation of hypotheses on which method is more appropriate. The evidence is reviewed in two stages: first the prior research, then research that we have done.

Suggested Citation

  • JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations," General Economics and Teaching 0412025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412025
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 15
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0412/0412025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norbert L. Kerr & David R. Nerenz & David Herrick, 1979. "Role Playing and the Study of Jury Behavior," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 7(3), pages 337-355, February.
    2. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1977. "Social irresponsibility in management," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 185-213, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Tichy, 2002. "Over-optimism Among Experts in Assessment and Foresight," ITA manu:scripts 02_05, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    2. J. S. Armstrong & R. Brodie & S. McIntyre, 2005. "Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. JS Armstrong & Philip D. Hutcherson, 2005. "Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions," General Economics and Teaching 0502040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making," General Economics and Teaching 0412023, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; conflict;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

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