Over-optimism Among Experts in Assessment and Foresight
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References listed on IDEAS
- C. West Churchman, 1963. "The X of X," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 351-357, April.
- JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations," General Economics and Teaching 0412025, EconWPA.
- Georg Aichholzer, 2001. "Delphi Austria - An Example of Tailoring Foresight to the Needs of a Small Country," ITA manu:scripts 01_02, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
- Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
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- Salazar-Garza, Ricardo, 2012. "The Mexican Peso: Exchange Risk Coverage Management through the Forgotten Effects Theory," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 17(32), pages 53-73.
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KeywordsForesight exercises; Delphi methods; self-rating of experts; expert optimism;
NEP fieldsThis paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-CBE-2002-10-18 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
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