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The size and effects of emigration and remittances in the Western-Balkans: Forecasting based on a Delphi process

Listed author(s):
  • Petreski, Marjan
  • Petreski, Blagica
  • Tumanoska, Despina
  • Narazani, Edlira
  • Kazazi, Fatush
  • Ognjanov, Galjina
  • Jankovic, Irena
  • Mustafa, Arben
  • Kochovska, Tereza

The objective of this paper is to forecast the size and effects of remittances and emigration in four Western-Balkan countries: Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Kosovo, through application of a qualitative forecasting method: a Delphi questionnaire. We solicited consensus building within and between two groups of respondents: 10 experts and 20 receivers were consulted per country in three subsequent rounds - two on the same group, and a third cross-round whereby average answers of receivers were given to experts, and vice versa. Consensual results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and will reduce in Albania and Kosovo. With lower consensus, results forecast that emigration will decelerate in Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo, and will accelerate in Serbia by 2021. Emigration effects for the society have been forecasted to be predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecasted to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken it in Albania. In all four countries, expert and receivers were in agreement that remittances will continue to support current consumption only. On the other hand, Macedonians lacked consensus on remittances’ effect on the labour market, whereby experts agreed that remittances will support inactivity, while receivers – employment. On the other hand, there has been a consensus achieved in the other three countries that remittances will support labour-market activity.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75512/1/MPRA_paper_75512.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 75512.

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Date of creation: 2017
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75512
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  1. Valero-Gil, Jorge, 2008. "Remittances and the household’s expenditures on health," MPRA Paper 9572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. GHERBOVEŢ, Sergiu, 2014. "Remittance. Forecasting Methodology And Instruments," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 1(1), pages 163-167.
  3. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
  4. World Bank, 2009. "Global Development Finance 2009 : Charting a Global Recovery, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8127, January.
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  8. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-918, October.
  9. Rolando Avendano & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2011. "Are working remittances relevant for credit rating agencies?," Post-Print hal-00813587, HAL.
  10. David J. McKenzie & Nicole Hildebrandt, 2005. "The Effects of Migration on Child Health in Mexico," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2005), pages 257-289, August.
  11. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2011. "New evidence on the role of remittances on healthcare expenditures by Mexican households," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 69-98, March.
  12. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
  14. Qayyum, Abdul & Javid, Muhammad & Arif, Umaima, 2008. "Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth and Poverty: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 22941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Hakim, Simon & Weinblatt, J., 1993. "The Delphi process as a tool for decision making : The case of vocational training of people with handicaps," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 25-38.
  16. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
  17. World Bank, 2009. "Global Development Finance 2009 : Charting a Global Recovery, Volume 2. Summary and Country Tables," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8128, January.
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