Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis
The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mohapatra, Sanket & Joseph, George & Ratha, Dilip, 2009.
"Remittances and natural disasters : ex-post response and contribution to ex-ante preparedness,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4972, The World Bank.
- Sanket Mohapatra & George Joseph & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Remittances and natural disasters: ex-post response and contribution to ex-ante preparedness," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 365-387, June.
- Hildebrandt, Nicole & McKenzie, David, 2005.
"The effects of migration on child health in Mexico,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3573, The World Bank.
- David J. McKenzie & Nicole Hildebrandt, 2005. "The Effects of Migration on Child Health in Mexico," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- HwaJung Choi, 2007.
"Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
- Dean Yang & HwaJung Choi, 2005. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," Working Papers 535, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paterno, 2006.
"Do workers' remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals?,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
19872, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
- Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paternò, 2006. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0714, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Bugamelli, Matteo & Paterno, Francesco, 2005. "Do workers'remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3766, The World Bank.
- Riccardo Faini, 2006.
"Remittances and the brain drain,"
Development Working Papers
214, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
- Rolando Avendaño & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto Parra, 2009. "Are Workers' Remittances Relevant for Credit Rating Agencies?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 282, OECD Publishing.
- Parsons, Christopher R. & Skeldon, Ronald & Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan, 2007. "Quantifying international migration : a database of bilateral migrant stocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4165, The World Bank.
- Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Anjali Garg, 2010.
"The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa: What's the Damage?,"
Journal of African Development,
African Finance and Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-96.
- Ralph Chami & Adolfo Barajas & Anjali Garg & Connel Fullenkamp, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa: What's the Damage?," IMF Working Papers 10/24, International Monetary Fund.
- Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2009.
"New Evidence on the Role of Remittances on Health Care Expenditures by Mexican Households,"
IZA Discussion Papers
4617, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2011. "New evidence on the role of remittances on healthcare expenditures by Mexican households," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 69-98, March.
- Nicholas P. Glytsos, 1997. "Remitting Behaviour of "Temporary" and "Permanent" Migrants: The Case of Greeks in Germany and Australia," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 11(3), pages 409-435, November.
- Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2006.
"Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth,"
IZA Discussion Papers
2160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2009. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011 : Remittances Expected to Fall by 7-10 Percent in 2009," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10975, The World Bank.
- Carlos Vargas-Silva & Peng Huang, 2006.
"Macroeconomic determinantsof workers' remittances: Hostversus home country's economic conditions,"
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 81-99.
- Carlos Vargas-Silva & Peng Huang, 2005. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Workers’ Remittances: Host vs. Home Country’s Economic Conditions," International Finance 0507007, EconWPA, revised 29 Jul 2005.
- Freund, Caroline & Spatafora, Nikola, 2008. "Remittances, transaction costs, and informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 356-366, June.
- Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2010. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2010-11 : Remittance Flows to Developing Countries Remained Resilient in 2009, Expected to Recover During 2010-11," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10931, The World Bank.
- Merkle, Lucie & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1992. "Savings, remittances, and return migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 77-81, January.
- John Gibson & David McKenzie & Halahingano Rohorua, 2006. "How Cost Elastic are Remittances? Estimates from Tongan Migrants in New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 06/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
- Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2009. "Migration and Remittance Trends 2009 : A Better-Than-Expected Outcome So Far, But Significant Risks Ahead," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10958, The World Bank.
- El-Sakka, M. I. T. & McNabb, Robert, 1999. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1493-1502, August.
- Dilip Ratha, 2006. "Leveraging remittances for development," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 173-185.
- Raju Jan Singh & Kyung-woo Lee & Markus Haacker, 2009. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 09/216, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.