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Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis

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  • Mohapatra, Sanket
  • Ratha, Dilip

Abstract

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohapatra, Sanket & Ratha, Dilip, 2010. "Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5512, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5512
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2010. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2010-11 : Remittance Flows to Developing Countries Remained Resilient in 2009, Expected to Recover During 2010-11," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10931, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bharati Basu & James T. Bang, 2013. "Insurance and remittances: New evidence from Latin American immigrants to the US," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 10(3), pages 383-398, September.
    2. Giulia Bettin & Riccardo Lucchetti, 2016. "Steady streams and sudden bursts: persistence patterns in remittance decisions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 263-292, January.
    3. Immaculate Machasio, 2016. "Do Remittance Flows Stabilize Developing Countries in the aftermath of Sovereign Defaults?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201639, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Sinem Yilmaz, 2016. "Migration of highly educated Belgian and Dutch Turks: Young Brains of Turkey," Border Crossing, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 6(2), pages 305-324, December.
    5. Ibrahim Sirkeci & Jeffrey H. Cohen & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13092, November.
    6. Kamel Jlassi, 2015. "Modelling and Forecasting of Tunisian Current Account: Aggregate versus Disaggregate Approach," IHEID Working Papers 13-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. J. Atsu Amegashie & Michael Batu, 2015. "Wider Boundaries: The Welfare State and International Remittances," CESifo Working Paper Series 5456, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Zizi GOSCHIN & Monica ROMAN, 2012. "Determinants of the remitting behaviour of Romanian emigrants in an economic crisis context," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 87-103, December.
    9. L. De & J. Gaillard & W. Friesen & F. Smith, 2015. "Remittances in the face of disasters: a case study of rural Samoa," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 653-672, June.

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    Keywords

    Remittances; Debt Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Agriculture&Farming Systems; Emerging Markets;

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