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Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis

  • Mohapatra, Sanket
  • Ratha, Dilip

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5512.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5512
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  1. Faini, Riccardo, 2006. "Remittances and the Brain Drain," IZA Discussion Papers 2155, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Merkle, Lucie & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1992. "Savings, remittances, and return migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 77-81, January.
  3. El-Sakka, M. I. T. & McNabb, Robert, 1999. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1493-1502, August.
  4. David J. McKenzie & Nicole Hildebrandt, 2005. "The Effects of Migration on Child Health in Mexico," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  5. HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
  6. Carlos Vargas-Silva & Peng Huang, 2005. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Workers’ Remittances: Host vs. Home Country’s Economic Conditions," International Finance 0507007, EconWPA, revised 29 Jul 2005.
  7. Nicholas P. Glytsos, 1997. "Remitting Behaviour of "Temporary" and "Permanent" Migrants: The Case of Greeks in Germany and Australia," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 11(3), pages 409-435, November.
  8. Raju Jan Singh & Markus Haacker & Kyung-woo Lee & Ma�lan Le Goff, 2011. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(2), pages 312-340, March.
  9. Dilip Ratha, 2006. "Leveraging remittances for development," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 173-185.
  10. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paterno, Francesco, 2005. "Do workers'remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3766, The World Bank.
  11. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2009. "Remittances, financial development, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 144-152, September.
  12. Parsons, Christopher R. & Skeldon, Ronald & Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan, 2007. "Quantifying international migration : a database of bilateral migrant stocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4165, The World Bank.
  13. Sanket Mohapatra & George Joseph & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Remittances and natural disasters: ex-post response and contribution to ex-ante preparedness," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 365-387, June.
  14. John Gibson & David McKenzie & Halahingano Rohorua, 2006. "How Cost Elastic are Remittances? Estimates from Tongan Migrants in New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 06/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  15. Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2009. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011 : Remittances Expected to Fall by 7-10 Percent in 2009," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10975, The World Bank.
  16. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Anjali Garg, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa: What's the Damage?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-96.
  17. Rolando Avendaño & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto Parra, 2009. "Are Workers' Remittances Relevant for Credit Rating Agencies?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 282, OECD Publishing.
  18. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2011. "New evidence on the role of remittances on healthcare expenditures by Mexican households," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 69-98, March.
  19. Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2010. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2010-11 : Remittance Flows to Developing Countries Remained Resilient in 2009, Expected to Recover During 2010-11," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10931, The World Bank.
  20. Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2009. "Migration and Remittance Trends 2009 : A Better-Than-Expected Outcome So Far, But Significant Risks Ahead," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10958, The World Bank.
  21. Freund, Caroline & Spatafora, Nikola, 2008. "Remittances, transaction costs, and informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 356-366, June.
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