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The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process

Author

Listed:
  • Petreski Marjan

    () (University American College Skopje, III Makedonska Brigada 60, 1000Skopje, Macedonia)

  • Petreski Blagica
  • Tumanoska Despina
  • Narazani Edlira
  • Kazazi Fatush
  • Ognjanov Galjina
  • Jankovic Irena
  • Mustafa Arben
  • Kochovska Tereza

Abstract

This paper aims at forecasting the size and effects of remittances and emigration in Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Kosovo, using a qualitative forecasting method, a Delphi questionnaire. The authors examined consensus building within and between two groups of respondents: ten experts and twenty remittance receivers per country, in three subsequent rounds–two on the same group and a third cross-round. Consensual results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and will reduce in Albania and Kosovo. With less consensus, the results forecast that emigration will decelerate, except in Serbia. Emigration effects for the society have been forecast as predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecast to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken in Albania. Consensus has been reached, except in Macedonia, that remittances will support labour market activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Petreski Marjan & Petreski Blagica & Tumanoska Despina & Narazani Edlira & Kazazi Fatush & Ognjanov Galjina & Jankovic Irena & Mustafa Arben & Kochovska Tereza, 2017. "The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process," Südosteuropa. Journal of Politics and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 65(4), pages 679-695, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:soeuro:v:65:y:2017:i:4:p:679-695:n:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank Group & Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, 2017. "Western Balkans Labor Market Trends 2017," World Bank Other Operational Studies 26395, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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