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On the Reliability and Predictive Validity of Purchase Intention Measures


  • Manohar U. Kalwani

    (Krannert Graduate School of Business, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907)

  • Alvin J. Silk

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)


This paper reports some further analyses and applications of Morrison's model of the predictive relationship between measures of intentions and subsequent purchasing behavior. A review of published studies bearing on the threats to predictive validity of intention scales represented in Morrison's model is presented. Findings from a test-retest study of intention ratings for concept stimuli are shown to be consistent with the levels of reliability expected under the model's assumptions of beta binomial distributed scores. Evidence of the predictive validity of intention measures is found in a re-analysis of several sets of relevant data but a different form of predictive relationship is shown to hold for generic durable goods as compared to branded packaged goods. Whereas a linear relationship is supported in the case of durable goods, the presence of a threshold phenomenon in the branded packaged goods data suggests the use of a piecewise linear model. There is reason to believe that the nature and sources of systematic error present in intentions ratings are different for these two types of purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Manohar U. Kalwani & Alvin J. Silk, 1982. "On the Reliability and Predictive Validity of Purchase Intention Measures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 243-286.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:1:y:1982:i:3:p:243-286

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    6. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1833-1840, December.
    7. Denis Darpy, 1997. "Une variable médiatrice du report d’achat : la procrastination," Post-Print hal-01518926, HAL.
    8. Venkatesh, Viswanath & Maruping, Likoebe M. & Brown, Susan A., 2006. "Role of time in self-prediction of behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 160-176, July.
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    10. Armstrong, J. Scott & Morwitz, Vicki G. & Kumar, V., 2000. "Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?," MPRA Paper 81689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    13. Atakan Yalcin & Lerzan Aksoy & Timothy L. Keiningham & Bart Larivière & Sunil Mithas & Forrest V. Morgeson III, 2012. "The Satisfaction, Repurchase Intention and Shareholder Value Linkage: A Longitudinal Examination of Fixed and Firm Specific Effects," EcoMod2012 4543, EcoMod.
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    15. Daniel McFadden & Albert Bemmaor & Francis Caro & Jeff Dominitz & Byung-Hill Jun & Arthur Lewbel & Rosa Matzkin & Francesca Molinari & Norbert Schwarz & Robert Willis & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-196, December.
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