Unmasking the Theta Method
The Theta method of forecasting performed particularly well in the M3-competition and is therefore of interest to forecast practitioners. The description of the method given by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos (2000) involves several pages of algebraic manipulation and is difficult to comprehend. We show that the method can be expressed much more simply; furthermore we show that the forecasts obtained are equivalent to simple exponential smoothing with drift.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia|
Phone: +61 3 99052489
Fax: +61 3 99055474
Web page: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002.
"A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
- Hyndman, R.J. & Koehler, A.B. & Snyder, R.D. & Grose, S., 2000. "A State Space Framework for Automatic Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2000. "The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 521-530.
- Ord, J.K. & Koehler, A. & Snyder, R.D., 1995. "Estimation and Prediction for a Class of Dynamic Nonlinear Statistical Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2001-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr Xibin Zhang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.