Bayesian Exponential Smoothing
In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2000|
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- Snyder, Ralph D & Ord, J Keith & Koehler, Anne B, 2001.
"Prediction Intervals for ARIMA Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 217-25, April.
- Snyder, R.D. & Ord, J.K. & Koehler, A.B., 1997. "Prediction Intervals for Arima Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/97, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Ray, W. D., 1989. "Rates of convergence to steady state for the linear growth version of a dynamic linear model (DLM)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 537-545.
- Harvey, Andrew & Snyder, Ralph D., 1990. "Structural time series models in inventory control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198, July.
- Snyder, R.D. & Koehler, A.B. & Ord, J.K., 1998. "Lead Time demand for Simple Exponential Smoothing," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
- Ord, J.K. & Koehler, A. & Snyder, R.D., 1995. "Estimation and Prediction for a Class of Dynamic Nonlinear Statistical Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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