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Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence From the Currency Board in Bulgaria

  • Neven T. Valev

    ()

  • John A. Carlson

    ()

We use unique survey data from Bulgaria’s currency board to examine the reasons for persistent incomplete credibility of a financial stabilization regime. Although it produced remarkably positive effects in terms of sustained low inflation since 1997, the currency board has not achieved full credibility. This is not uncommon in other less-developed countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. Our results reveal that incomplete credibility is explained primarily by concerns about external economic shocks and the persistent high unemployment in the country. Past experiences with high inflation do not rank among the top reasons to expect financial instability in the future.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp705.pdf
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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 2004-705.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-705
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  9. Jean-Baptiste Desquilbet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2004. "Credibility and Adjustment : Gold Standards versus Currency Boards," CAE Working Papers 11, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.
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  19. Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 708-20, September.
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  21. Corrinne Ho, 2002. "A survey of the institutional and operational aspects of modern-day currency boards," BIS Working Papers 110, Bank for International Settlements.
  22. Rzepkowski, Bronka, 2003. "The devaluation expectations in Hong Kong and their determinants," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 174-191, June.
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  24. Anne Marie Gulde, 1999. "The Role of the Currency Board in Bulgaria's Stabilization," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/3, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Steve Hanke, 2002. "On dollarization and currency boards: Error and deception," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 203-222.
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  27. Jonung, Lars & Laidler, David E, 1988. "Are Perceptions of Inflation Rational? Some Evidence for Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1080-87, December.
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