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Currency boards and currency crises

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  • Gregor Irwin

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how a currency board can become vulnerable to a crisis in which the policymaker is forced to devalue. The model is built from two blocks: first, incomplete information about the devaluation cost faced by the policymaker; and second, unemployment persistence. Incomplete information can result in multiple equilibria. In one class of equilibrium the policymaker has a credibility problem and maintaining the currency board is costly in terms of unemployment. If unemployment is persistent then pressure to devalue can build up over time until it becomes unbearable and the policymaker is forced to devalue. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Irwin, 2004. "Currency boards and currency crises," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 64-87, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:56:y:2004:i:1:p:64-87
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:got:cegedp:36 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Joao Loureiro & Manuel m.f. Martins & Ana paula Ribeiro, 2010. "Cape Verde: The Case For Euroisation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(3), pages 248-268, September.
    3. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2007. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 111-121.
    4. Katsimi, Margarita, 2008. "Exchange rate strategies towards the euro-zone for new EU member states with currency boards," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1043-1063, September.
    5. Switgard Feuerstein & Oliver Grimm, 2006. "On the Credibility of Currency Boards," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 818-835, November.
    6. Castrén, Olli & Takalo, Tuomas & Wood, Geoffrey, 2004. "Labour market reform and the sustainability of exchange rate pegs," Research Discussion Papers 22/2004, Bank of Finland.
    7. Bleaney, Michael & Gundermann, Marco, 2007. "Stabilizations, crises and the "exit" problem - A theoretical model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 876-890.
    8. Oliver Grimm, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and Stability under Currency Board Systems," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 07/66, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

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