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Unemployment hysteresis: empirical evidence for Latin America

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the unemployment dynamics of 18 Latin American countries for the last four decades. We use a time series approach to test the mean reversion of unemployment rates and its approximation to a Natural Rate of Unemployment (NRU). The tests include the possibility of one and two structural changes to account for the occurrence of significant macroeconomic changes experienced by the Latin American economies. In addition, we estimate the order of integration of the series, allowing for fractional degrees of differentiation, to assess the persistence of unemployment in the region. Our results indicate that when endogenous structural changes are included in the model, in general we find evidence of mean reversion of unemployment rates for the Latin American countries under study. Therefore, our findings support the structuralist hypothesis of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Astrid Ayala & Juncal Cuñado & Luis Albériko Gil-Alana, 2012. "Unemployment hysteresis: empirical evidence for Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 15, pages 213-233, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:15:y:2012:n:2:p:213-233
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    File URL: https://ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume15/ayala.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Werner, Laura, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 468, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Nsenga, Dieu & Nach, Mirada & Khobai, Hlalefang & Moyo, Clement & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Is it the natural rate or hysteresis hypothesis for unemployment rates in Newly Industrialized Economies?," MPRA Paper 86274, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dieu Nsenga & Mirada Nach & Hlalefang Khobai & Clement Moyo & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Is it the natural rate or hysteresis hypothesis for unemployment in Newly Industrialized Economies?," Working Papers 1817, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Apr 2018.
    5. Vuyo Pikoko & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Is there hysteresis in South African unemployment? Evidence form the post-recessionary period," Working Papers 1803, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jan 2018.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0468 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Laura Werner, 2014. "Hysteresis Effects in Economics – Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0468, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Latin America; unemployment; hysteresis hypothesis; unit root tests; endogenous structural changes; fractional integration;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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