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Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkey-US Commodity Trade: An Asymmetry Analysis

Author

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  • M Bahmani-Oskooee
  • H Karamelikli

Abstract

In this paper we assess the symmetric and asymmetric effects of lira-dollar volatility on 56 2-digit industries that trade between Turkey and the US When a linear model was estimated, which assumes the effects to be symmetric, we found short-run effects of volatility on 23 Turkish exporting industries and 31 Turkish importing industries. Short-run effects lasted into the long-run in 6 exporting and 18 importing industries. However, when a nonlinear model was estimated, we found short-run effects in 41 exporting and 42 importing industries which were asymmetric in all industries. Short-run effects translated into asymmetric long-run effects in 45 exporting and 22 importing industries.

Suggested Citation

  • M Bahmani-Oskooee & H Karamelikli, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkey-US Commodity Trade: An Asymmetry Analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(2), pages 1-29, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eis:articl:220bahmani
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    File URL: http://www.economicissues.org.uk/Files/2019/EI_Sept2020_bahmani.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Dogukan Tarakci & Fevzi Olmez & Dilek Durusu-Ciftci, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and export in Turkey: Does the nexus vary across the type of commodity?," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 22(2), pages 77-89.
    2. Sabrine Ferjani & Sami Saafi & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The Impacts of the Dollar-Renminbi Exchange Rate Misalignment on the China-United States Commodity Trade: An Asymmetric Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 507-554, September.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2023. "Whose policy uncertainty matters in the trade between Mexico and the U.S.: Additional evidence from asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Alper YILMAZ, 2024. "Bilateral J-Curve Between Türkiye and Its Major Non-EU Trading Partners: Evidence from Both Linear and Non-Linear Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 32(60).
    5. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.
    6. Waqar Khalid & Irfan Civcir & Hüseyin Özdeşer, 2025. "Revisiting the asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate risk on Turkish–German industry trade," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(9), pages 1-55, September.
    7. Nazif Durmaz & Tairu Jie, 2024. "Money demand in Mexico: a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 20-28.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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