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Thailand-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from 45 industries

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Kanitpong, Tatchawan

Abstract

Assessing the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows since 2017 has taken a new direction by engaging in asymmetry analysis. In this paper we add to this emerging literature by estimating both linear and nonlinear ARDL export and import demand models for each of the 45 industries that trade between Thailand and China. Estimates of the linear models revealed that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run effects on 22 Thai exporting and 32 Thai importing industries. However, the nonlinear model revealed that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run asymmetric effects on the trade flows of almost all industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 50% of the industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kanitpong, Tatchawan, 2019. "Thailand-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from 45 industries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:20:y:2019:i:c:s1703494919300696
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00130
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    6. Hajilee, Massomeh & Niroomand, Farhang, 2021. "Is there an asymmetric link between the shadow economy and the financial depth of emerging market economies?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thailand-China trade; 45 industries; Exchange rate uncertainty; Asymmetric analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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