IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v70y2021icp437-451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does deeper financial integration lead to macroeconomic and financial instability in Asia?

Author

Listed:
  • Eslamloueyan, Karim
  • Fatemifar, Neda

Abstract

Even though a deeper financial integration and higher economic and financial stability are the prime goals of many Asian policymakers, no researcher has studied the relationship between integration and (in)stability in Asia. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper investigates the causality between financial integration and macroeconomic and financial instability. To this end, we use the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a set of dynamic panel data models for a block of Asian countries over the period 2000–2017. Our estimation results show that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between financial integration and instability in Asia. Moreover, we find that financial integration causes instability in output and credit markets. The overall results show that macroeconomic and financial instability in Asia leads to financial disintegration. More specifically, the volatilities of the exchange rate and output growth cause financial fragmentation. Furthermore, we underscore the role of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies in offsetting the adverse effect of financial integration on macroeconomic and financial stability in Asia. Finally, the global financial crisis of 2008 has increased financial disintegration and instability in Asia. Our findings might help Asian policymakers to choose their policy targets when integrating into the global financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Eslamloueyan, Karim & Fatemifar, Neda, 2021. "Does deeper financial integration lead to macroeconomic and financial instability in Asia?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 437-451.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:70:y:2021:i:c:p:437-451
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592621000473
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yu, Ip-Wing & Fung, Kang-Por & Tam, Chi-Sang, 2010. "Assessing financial market integration in Asia - Equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2874-2885, December.
    2. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula & Marco Pagano, 2004. "Financial market integration and economic growth in the EU [‘International measures of schooling years and schooling quality’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 524-577.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2016. "Fiscal rules, financial stability and optimal currency areas," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 278-281.
    5. Gabriel Mougani, 2012. "Working Paper 144 - An Analysis of the Impact of Financial Integration on Economic Activity and Macroeconomic Volatility in Africa within the Financial Globalization Context," Working Paper Series 375, African Development Bank.
    6. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    7. Edison, Hali J. & Levine, Ross & Ricci, Luca & Slok, Torsten, 2002. "International financial integration and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 749-776, November.
    8. Jan Babecky & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2013. "Financial Integration at Times of Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 25-45, March.
    9. Pang, Ke, 2013. "Financial integration, nominal rigidity, and monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 75-90.
    10. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
    11. Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2008. "Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 245-269, April.
    12. Claudiu T. Albulescu, 2011. "Economic and Financial Integration of CEECs: The Impact of Financial Instability," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 027-045, March.
    13. Hideaki Hirata & Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose, 2004. "Integration and Fluctuations : The Case of MENA," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 48-67, November.
    14. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    15. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    16. Jackson Matthew O. & Palfrey Thomas R. & Srivastava Sanjay, 1994. "Undominated Nash Implementation in Bounded Mechanisms," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 474-501, May.
    17. Pascal Paul, 2018. "Monetary Policy Cycles and Financial Stability," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. De Nicolò, Gianni & Juvenal, Luciana, 2014. "Financial integration, globalization, and real activity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 65-75.
    19. Samia Nasreen & Sofia Anwar, 2017. "Financial Stability And The Role Of Economic And Financial Integration In South Asia: Evidence From Time-Series Data," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 303-333, March.
    20. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    21. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Adjasi, Charles K.D. & Alhassan, Abdul Latif, 2016. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, foreign direct investment and institutional quality: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 612-621.
    22. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    23. Gan, Pei-Tha, 2014. "The precise form of financial integration: Empirical evidence for selected Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-219.
    24. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    25. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2003. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 179-199, July.
    26. Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose, "undated". "Integration and Fluctuations," Working Paper 164486, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    27. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Miguel Molico & Ben Tomlin, 2015. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research," Discussion Papers 15-7, Bank of Canada.
    28. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    29. Eslamloueyan, Karim & Jafari, Mahbobeh, 2010. "Capital mobility, openness, and saving-investment relationship in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1246-1252, September.
    30. Motelle, Sephooko & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2015. "Financial integration and stability in the Southern African development community," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 100-117.
    31. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    32. Rughoo, Aarti & You, Kefei, 2016. "Asian financial integration: Global or regional? Evidence from money and bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 419-434.
    33. Saafi, Sami & Bel Haj Mohamed, Meriem & Ben Doudou, Makram, 2016. "Causal Nexus between Financial Integration and Economic Growth : Does Nonlinearity Matter?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 31(4), pages 817-854.
    34. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ryan H. Murphy & Colin O’Reilly, 2019. "Applying panel vector autoregression to institutions, human capital, and output," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1633-1652, November.
    2. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2016. "Investment, growth, and defense expenditure in the EU15: Revisiting the nexus using SIPRI’s new consistent dataset," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 28-37, October.
    3. Hertweck, Matthias & Brey, Bjoern, 2017. "The Persistent Effects of Monsoon Rainfall Shocks in India: A Nonlinear VAR Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168256, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Selvarajan, Sonia Kumari & Ab-Rahim, Rossazana, 2020. "Financial Integration and Economic Growth: Should Asia Emulate Europe?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 191-213.
    5. Lips, Johannes, 2018. "Debt and the Oil Industry - Analysis on the Firm and Production Level," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181504, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Duc Hong Vo & Thang Cong Nguyen & Ngoc Phu Tran & Anh The Vo, 2019. "What Factors Affect Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Middle-Income Countries?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, March.
    7. David C. López-Valenzuela & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano & Alvaro Carmona-Duarte, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR," Borradores de Economia 1075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Chowdhury, Abdur, 2015. "Terms of trade shocks and private savings in the developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 1122-1134.
    9. Al-Jahwari, Salim Ahmed Said, 2021. "Does the Twin-Deficits doctrine apply to the Gulf Cooperation Council? A dynamic panel VAR-X model approach," MPRA Paper 111232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Zouaoui, Haykel & Zoghlami, Feten, 2020. "On the income diversification and bank market power nexus in the MENA countries: Evidence from a GMM panel-VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Juan Federico & Joan-Lluis Capelleras, 2015. "The heterogeneous dynamics between growth and profits: the case of young firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 231-253, February.
    12. Rihab Bousnina & Srdjan Redzepagic & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2021. "Sustainability of current account balances in MENA countries: threshold cointegration approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 241-264, February.
    13. Ricardo R. Moreira, 2019. "Inflation and real exchange rate and macroeconomic gaps: causality for 50 emerging and developing countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 142-158.
    14. Md Qamruzzaman & Tahar Tayachi & Ahmed Muneeb Mehta & Majid Ali, 2021. "Do International Capital Flows, Institutional Quality Matter for Innovation Output: The Mediating Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," JOItmC, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, May.
    15. Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Measuring comparative advantages in the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 260-269.
    16. Phuc Nguyen, Canh & Dinh Su, Thanh & Doytch, Nadia, 2020. "The drivers of financial development: Global evidence from internet and mobile usage," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Ekpo Akpan & Chuku Chuku, 2017. "Working Paper 291 - Regional Financial Integration and Economic Activity in Africa," Working Paper Series 2403, African Development Bank.
    18. Sigmund, Michael & Ferstl, Robert, 2021. "Panel vector autoregression in R with the package panelvar," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 693-720.
    19. Jouida, Sameh, 2018. "Diversification, capital structure and profitability: A panel VAR approach11We are grateful to the editor and the anonymous reviewer for their valuable comments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 243-256.
    20. Ejike Udeogu & Shampa Roy-Mukherjee & Uzochukwu Amakom, 2021. "Does Increasing Product Complexity and Diversity Cause Economic Growth in the Long-Run? A GMM Panel VAR Evidence," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality; Financial integration; Instability; Dynamic panel data model; Generalized Method of Moments; Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:70:y:2021:i:c:p:437-451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.