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Agricultural productivity shocks and poverty in India: The short- and long-term effects of monsoon rainfall

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  • Brey, Björn
  • Hertweck, Matthias S.

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on yield, wages, and prices in the Indian agricultural sector. We distinguish between positive and negative rainfall shocks and explicitly consider their spatial dimension (local/regional). We find that particularly negative regional shocks exert adverse effects. The enormous drop in agricultural yield is short-lived, but elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices). Negative local shocks affect only wages, but not prices. This indicates that, in the food market, intra-regional trading mitigates the impact of local shocks. However, in the labour market, the arbitrage mechanism through migration appears substantially weaker.

Suggested Citation

  • Brey, Björn & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2019. "Agricultural productivity shocks and poverty in India: The short- and long-term effects of monsoon rainfall," Discussion Papers 18/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:182019
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    1. Camilo Bohorquez-Penuela & Andrea Otero-Cortes, 2020. "Blame it on the Rain: The Effects of Weather Shocks on Formal Rural Employment in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 18404, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    2. Sajid, Osama, 2023. "Economic and Demographic Effects of Increased Flood Susceptibility: Evidence from Rural India," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335442, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Anand Sahasranaman, 2020. "Long term dynamics of poverty transitions in India," Papers 2010.06954, arXiv.org.
    4. Patrick Blagrave, 2020. "Inflation co-movement in emerging and developing Asia: the monsoon effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(15), pages 1277-1283, September.
    5. Bohorquez-Penuela, Camilo, 2021. "Weather Shocks and Agricultural Credit in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Second-Floor Institution," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313994, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rainfall shocks; agricultural yield; wages; food prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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