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Long-term consequences of short-term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households

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  • Valerie A. Mueller
  • Daniel E. Osgood

Abstract

We find that large short-term precipitation shocks damage the long-term income of households that have permanently migrated from rural to urban areas. This outcome is consistent with the behavior of credit-constrained rural households who are willing to accept lower long-term income in urban areas following the depletion of their productive assets during an adverse shock. Our empirical evidence suggests that there may be a link between large precipitation shocks in rural areas and urban poverty. Further exploration is warranted on the mechanisms by which natural disasters cause these long-term losses. Copyright (c) 2009 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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  • Valerie A. Mueller & Daniel E. Osgood, 2009. "Long-term consequences of short-term precipitation shocks: evidence from Brazilian migrant households," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(5), pages 573-586, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:40:y:2009:i:5:p:573-586
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier E. Baez & Dorothy Kronick & Andrew D. Mason, 2013. "Rural Households in a Changing Climate," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 28(2), pages 267-289, August.
    2. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
    3. Azreen Karim & Ilan Noy, 2016. "Poverty and Natural Disasters: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 7(2).
    4. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2014. "Poverty and natural disasters: A meta-analysis," Working Paper Series 3234, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Meza-Pale, Pablo & Yunez-Naude, Antonio, 2015. "The Effect of Rainfall Variation on Agricultural Households: Evidence from Mexico," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212457, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Jacob Ricker-Gilbert, 2014. "Wage and employment effects of Malawi's fertilizer subsidy program," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(3), pages 337-353, May.
    7. Baez, Javier E. & de la Fuente, Alejandro & Santos, Indhira, 2010. "Do Natural Disasters Affect Human Capital? An Assessment Based on Existing Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 5164, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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