Exchange rate volatility and Irish-UK trade, 1979-1992
This study examines how exchange-rate volatility affected Ireland's exports to its most important trading partner, the United Kingdom, from 1979 to 1992. To ensure reliable inferences regarding income and price elasticities and the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports, the time series properties of the series used are investigated. The analysis here is conducted at both aggregate and 2-digit SITC Division levels since exchange rate volatility can reasonably be presumed to affect sectors differently. Since expectations matter for exchange rate determination real volatility was generated according to a first-order GARCH process. Both real and nominal volatility were important determinants for over 35% of Irish-UK trade, with positive effects predominating. This may be due to the nature of Irish firms operating in a small open economy where they have little option in dealing with increased exchange rate risk except to 'weather the storm' for fear of losing market share or facing costs of either exit, re-entry, or both.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 33 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Caporale, Tony & Doroodian, Khosrow, 1994. "Exchange rate variability and the flow of international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 49-54, September.
- Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
- Feenstra, Robert C., 1989.
"Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 25-45, August.
- Robert C. Feenstra, 1987. "Symmetric Pass-Through of Tariffs and Exchange Rates Under Imperfect Competition: An Empirical Test," NBER Working Papers 2453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
- Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
- Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-159, April.
- G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Udo Broll & Bernhard Eckwert, 1999. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 178-185, July.
- A. R. Pagan & A. D. Hall & P. K. Trivedi, 1983. "Assessing the Variability of Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 585-596.
- Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
- Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-286, May.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
- Medhora, Rohinton, 1990. "The effect of exchange rate variability on trade: The case of the West African Monetary Union's imports," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 313-324, February.
- Goodhart, C A E & Giugale, M, 1993. "From Hour to Hour in the Foreign Exchange Market," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(1), pages 1-34, March.
- Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
- Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
- Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)