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Reexamining the growth effects of ENSO: the role of local weather conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Cécile Couharde
  • Olivier Damette
  • Rémi Generoso
  • Kamiar Mohaddes

Abstract

This paper examines the growth effects of ENSO events through their interactions with local weather conditions using the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 1975 to 2014 and over a sample of 74 countries. The inclusion of SPEI in panel estimation makes it possible to control for time-varying country-specific effects of ENSO events, therefore outlining their heterogeneous effects on growth and eliminating a potential source of omitted-variable bias. By better identifying the persistence of ENSO effects on local weather conditions, we evidence that ENSO events generate heterogeneous and local effects depending not only on countries’ climate regime but also on their weather patterns. Our results suggest that examining the growth effects of ENSO events should thus explicitly account for their interaction with weather patterns to capture more precisely the heterogeneity across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Couharde & Olivier Damette & Rémi Generoso & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2019. "Reexamining the growth effects of ENSO: the role of local weather conditions," Working Papers of BETA 2019-27, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2019-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Chaitat Jirophat & Pym Manopimoke & Suparit Suwanik, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Shocks in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 188, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    2. David Dosso, 2025. "Which Countries are “Particularly Vulnerable†to Climate Change? A New Climate Vulnerability Indicator," Working Papers 2025.2, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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