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Have the effects of shocks to oil price expectations changed?

Author

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  • Bruns, Martin
  • Lütkepohl, Helmut

Abstract

Studies of the crude oil market based on structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models typically assume a time-invariant model and transmission of shocks and possibly allow for heteroskedasticity by using robust inference procedures. We assume a heteroskedastic reduced-form VAR model with time-invariant slope coefficients and explicitly consider the possibility of time-varying shock transmission due to heteroskedasticity. We study a model for the global crude oil market that includes key world and U.S. macroeconomic variables and find evidence for changes in the transmission of shocks to oil price expectations during the last decades which can be attributed to heteroskedasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2023. "Have the effects of shocks to oil price expectations changed?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:233:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523004421
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111416
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural vector autoregression; Heteroskedastic VAR; Proxy VAR; Crude oil market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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