The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices
Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated. Yet at times in the past, and very powerfully in the last two years, many voices have noted that the two price series appear to have “decoupled”. We explore the apparent contradiction between these two views. We find that recognition of the statistical fact of cointegration needs to be tempered with two additional points. First, there is an enormous amount of unexplained volatility in natural gas prices at short horizons. Hence, any simple formulaic relationship between the prices will leave a large portion of the natural gas price unexplained. Second, the cointegrating relationship does not appear to be stable through time. The prices may be tied, but the relationship can shift dramatically over time. Therefore, although the two price series may be cointegrated, the confidence intervals for both short and long time horizons are large.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): Volume 33 (2012)
Issue (Month): Number 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.iaee.org
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:33-2-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.