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Another look on the relationships between oil prices and energy prices

Author

Listed:
  • Amine Lahiani

    (Econométrie - ESC Rennes School of Business - Rennes SB - Rennes School of Business - LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Anthony Miloudi

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière [EA 2249] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

  • Ramzi Benkraiem

    (Audencia Business School)

  • Shahbaz Muhammad

Abstract

This paper employs the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lags (QARDL) model developed recently by Cho et al. (2015) to investigate the pass-through of oil prices to a set of energy prices. This approach allows analyzing simultaneously short-term connections and long-run cointegrating relationships across a range of quantiles. It also provides insights on the short-run predictive power of oil prices in predicting energy prices while accounting for the cointegration between oil prices and each of the considered energy prices in low, medium and high quantiles. Two key findings emerge from this paper. First, all considered energy prices are shown to be cointegrated with oil price across quantiles meaning that a stationaryequilibriumrelationship exists between single energy price and oil price. Second, we find evidence that oil price is a significant predictor of individual petroleum products prices and natural gas in the short run. This paper has important policy implications for forecasters, energy policy-makers and portfolio managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Amine Lahiani & Anthony Miloudi & Ramzi Benkraiem & Shahbaz Muhammad, 2017. "Another look on the relationships between oil prices and energy prices," Post-Print hal-01429682, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01429682
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.031
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Correction to: Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 635-635, February.
    2. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Lahiani, Amine & Miloudi, Anthony & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "New insights into the US stock market reactions to energy price shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 169-187.
    3. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Lahiani, Amine & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2022. "An analysis of OPEC oil production reaction to non-OPEC oil supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Chandrarin, Grahita & Sohag, Kazi & Cahyaningsih, Diyah Sukanti & Yuniawan, Dani & Herdhayinta, Heyvon, 2022. "The response of exchange rate to coal price, palm oil price, and inflation in Indonesia: Tail dependence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2020. "Oil and pump prices: Testing their asymmetric relationship in a robust way," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
    7. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Zudi & Cheng, Cheng & Shi, Yukun & Shen, Jian, 2019. "On dynamic linkages of the state natural gas markets in the USA: Evidence from an empirical spatio-temporal network quantile analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 234-252.
    8. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Muhammad Tahir Suleman & Subhan Ullah & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2023. "Analyzing the connectedness between crude oil and petroleum products: Evidence from USA," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2278-2347, July.
    9. He, Xiaojuan & Mishra, Shekhar & Aman, Ameenullah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Razzaq, Asif & Sharif, Arshian, 2021. "The linkage between clean energy stocks and the fluctuations in oil price and financial stress in the US and Europe? Evidence from QARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. D. O. Olayungbo & T. A. Ojeyinka, 2022. "Crude oil prices pass-through to retail petroleum product prices in Nigeria: evidence from hidden cointegration approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 951-972, May.
    11. Valadkhani, Abbas & Anwar, Sajid & Ghazanfari, Arezoo & Nguyen, Jeremy, 2021. "Are petrol retailers less responsive to changes in wholesale or crude oil prices when they face lower competition? The case of Greater Sydney," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Oil and pump prices: is there any asymmetry in the Greek oil downstream sector?," Working Papers 268, Bank of Greece.
    13. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Gozgor, Giray & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Human capital and export diversification as new determinants of energy demand in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 335-349.
    14. Mohamad, Azhar & Fromentin, Vincent, 2023. "Herd and causality dynamics between energy commodities and ethical investment: Evidence from the different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Cook, Steven & Fosten, Jack, 2019. "Replicating rockets and feathers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 139-151.
    16. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2021. "Testing directional predictability between energy prices: A quantile-based analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Shi, Xunpeng & Variam, Hari M.P., 2017. "East Asia’s gas-market failure and distinctive economics—A case study of low oil prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 800-809.
    18. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2022. "The quantile dependence of the stock returns of “clean” and “dirty” firms on oil demand and supply shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    19. Li, Wei & Sun, Wen & Li, Guomin & Jin, Baihui & Wu, Wen & Cui, Pengfei & Zhao, Guohao, 2018. "Transmission mechanism between energy prices and carbon emissions using geographically weighted regression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 434-442.
    20. Jonathan Berrisch & Sven Pappert & Florian Ziel & Antonia Arsova, 2022. "Modeling Volatility and Dependence of European Carbon and Energy Prices," Papers 2208.14311, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    21. Zaighum, Isma & Aman, Ameenullah & Sharif, Arshian & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Do energy prices interact with global Islamic stocks? Fresh insights from quantile ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    22. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Soo-Wah, Low & Billah, Mabruk, 2023. "Time-frequency connectedness and spillover among carbon, climate, and energy futures: Determinants and portfolio risk management implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    23. Zhang, Wenbei & Qiu, Feng, 2024. "Rockets and Feathers in the Oil and Gasoline Markets: In-Depth Analysis of Three Asymmetries," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 344062, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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