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Uncertainty Through the Lenses of A Mixed-Frequency Bayesian Panel Markov Switching Model

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  • Casarin, Roberto
  • Foroni, Claudia
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Ravazzolo, Francesco

Abstract

We propose a Bayesian panel model for mixed frequency data, where parameters can change over time according to a Markov process. Our model allows for both structural instability and random effects. To estimate the model, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for sampling from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters, and we test its properties in simulation experiments. We use the model to study the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty and financiall uncertainty on a set of variables in a multi-country context including the US, several European countries and Japan. Wefind that for most of the variables financial uncertainty dominates macroeconomic uncertainty. Furthermore, we show that the effects of uncertainty differ whether the economy is in a contraction regime or in an expansion regime.

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  • Casarin, Roberto & Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2017. "Uncertainty Through the Lenses of A Mixed-Frequency Bayesian Panel Markov Switching Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 12339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12339
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 125-155, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; dynamic panel model; Markov switching; MCMC; mixed-frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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