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Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models

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  • GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo
  • INOUE, Atsushi
  • KILIAN, Lutz

Abstract

One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response matching estimator. The existing asymptotic theory for this estimator does not cover situations in which the number of impulse response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise routinely in applied work. We establish the consistency of the impulse response matching estimator in this situation, we derive its asymptotic distribution, and we show how this distribution can be approximated by bootstrap methods. Our analysis sheds new light on the choice of the weighting matrix and covers both weakly and strongly identified DSGE model parameters. We also show that under our assumptions special care is needed to ensure the asymptotic validity of Bayesian methods of inference. A simulation study suggests that the interval estimators we propose are reasonably accurate in practice. We also show that using these methods may affect the substantive conclusions in empirical work.

Suggested Citation

  • GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo & INOUE, Atsushi & KILIAN, Lutz, 2016. "Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-27, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 157-161.
    2. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 421-432.
    3. repec:eee:macchp:v2-527 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    5. repec:eee:energy:v:151:y:2018:i:c:p:167-177 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6821, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2018. "The small sample properties of Indirect Inference in testing and estimating DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. Minford, Lucy & Meenagh, David, 2018. "Supply-side policy and economic growth: A case study of the UK," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/10, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural estimation; DSGE; VAR; impulse response; nonstandard asymptotics; bootstrap; weak identification; robust inference.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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