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Fitting U.S. Trend Inflation: A Rolling-Window Approach

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  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    (University of Padova)

Abstract

The role of trend inflation shocks for the U.S. macroeconomic dynamics is investigated by estimating two DSGE models of the business cycle. Policymakers are assumed to be concerned with a time-varying inflation target, which is modeled as a persistent and stochastic process. The identification of trend inflation shocks (as opposed to a number of alternative innovations) is achieved by exploiting the measure of trend inflation recently proposed by Arouba and Schorfheide (2011, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics). Our main findings point to a substantial contribution of trend inflation shocks for the volatility of inflation and the policy rate. Such contribution is found to be time-dependent and highest during the mid-1970s to mid-1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Efrem Castelnuovo, 2012. "Fitting U.S. Trend Inflation: A Rolling-Window Approach," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0152, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0152
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    Cited by:

    1. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Groshenny, Nicolas & Haque, Qazi & Weder, Mark, 2017. "Monetary policy and indeterminacy after the 2001 slump," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 83-95.
    2. Zamarripa, Rene, 2024. "Parameter instabilities and monetary policy in a small open economy: Evidence from an estimated model for the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    3. Bekiros, Stelios & Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Dealing with financial instability under a DSGE modeling approach with banking intermediation: A predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 216-227.
    4. Ilabaca, Francisco & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Forecasting with instabilities: An application to DSGE models with financial frictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Zamarripa, Rene, 2021. "Estimating the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function in the last three decades: A Bayesian DSGE approach with rolling-windows," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Aguirre, Idoia & Vázquez, Jesús, 2020. "Learning, parameter variability, and swings in US macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Gupta Rangan & Sun Xiaojin, 2025. "Time-Varying Parameter Four-Equation DSGE Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 29(2), pages 235-246.
    9. Zams, Bastian Muzbar, 2021. "Frictions and empirical fit in a DSGE model for Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Gupta Rangan & Sun Xiaojin, 2025. "Time-Varying Parameter Four-Equation DSGE Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 29(2), pages 235-246.
    11. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "What are monetary policy shocks?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1086, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    12. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "What are monetary policy shocks?," Economic Research Papers 270008, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trend inflation shocks; new-keynesian DSGE models; rolling-window approach great moderation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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