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Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation

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  • Ettmeier, Stephanie
  • Kriwoluzky, Alexander

Abstract

We revisit the question whether U.S. fiscal policy in the pre-Volcker period was active or passive. To determine the policy stance, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. In contrast to previous studies, we do not have to treat the different policy regimes as distinct models, which have to be estimated separately. Instead, the SMC enables us to estimate the DSGE model over its entire parameter space to determine the prevailing policy mix. Our findings attribute the leading role to the fiscal authority, while the monetary authority accommodated its actions. For active monetary/passive fiscal policy, or passive monetary/passive fiscal policy we find no evidence in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2019. "Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203609
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolò, 2021. "A generalized approach to indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 843-868, July.
    2. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum & Qiu, Shi, 2021. "U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime changes and their interactions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Analysis; DSGE Models; Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions; Monte Carlo Methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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